Simulation-Based Inexact Fuzzy Semi-Infinite Programming Method for Agricultural Cultivated Area Planning in the Shiyang River Basin
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 143, Issue 2
Abstract
To deal with the multiple uncertainties caused by natural conditions and human activities of the Shiyang River basin in arid northwest China, a simulation-based inexact fuzzy semi-infinite programming method is developed for agricultural cultivated area management. First, the variation tendencies of four key elements (including annual precipitation, temperature, total runoff of the six tributaries at mountain outlets, and the inflow into the Caiqi station) have been investigated to improve the precision of the stream-flow simulation. Secondly, considering that the inflow into the Caiqi station is comprehensively influenced by both natural variation and human activities, the runoff series of the Caiqi station from 1955 to 2013 can be divided into three periods (the first period: 1955–1974, the second period: 1975–2002, and the third period: 2003–2013) through comparing the observed values and the simulated results of multiple linear regression. Thirdly, based on the results of runoff simulation, the inexact fuzzy semi-infinite programming model is established under multiple uncertainties to generate optimal agricultural cultivated area plans. Optimal results indicate that economic benefits show an upward trend, with nearly 10–20% benefits in Period 3 increase compared with that in Period 2. The ratio of the areas planted with grain crops and the economic crops is approximately in Period 2 and close to in Period 3. With impacts of human activities varying from negativity to positivity, available water resources of Minqin County are gradually recovering and increasing, so that the agricultural areas are adjusted correspondingly by the authorities to make it more suitable for the local sustainable development. The results of both simulation and optimization are valuable for crop land planning considering the effects of nature and human.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (41271536, 91425302, and 51439006).
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Published In
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 143 • Issue 2 • February 2017
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© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 7, 2016
Accepted: Jul 21, 2016
Published online: Sep 22, 2016
Published in print: Feb 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Feb 22, 2017
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