Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activity on Streamflow at the Basin Scale
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 142, Issue 8
Abstract
This paper analyzes long-term trends and sudden changes in hydro-climatic variables (i.e., runoff) in Iran’s Aidoghmoush basin during 1971–2000 using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and curves of cumulative runoff versus rainfall and cumulative runoff versus temperature The use of the Mann-Kendall test with a 99% confidence level revealed a decreasing trend in annual rainfall and total runoff and an increasing trend in temperature. A sudden change in the gradient of the cumulative curves in 1988 indicated that the relation between climatic variables and runoff is influenced by human activities (agricultural water use). The interval 1971–2000 was separated into a baseline interval (1971–1988) and an impact interval (1989–2000), during which human activities affected runoff. The five-parameter hydrologic model of IHACRES (Identification of unit Hydrographs and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation, and Streamflow data) was calibrated and verified over the baseline interval to determine the contribution of human activities and climatic variability to the change in runoff. Runoff was simulated with the hydrologic model for the interval 1989–2000, during which human activities reduced runoff. Results show that climate variability and human activities decreased the runoff in the Aidoghmoush river basin by 79 and 21%, respectively.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge University of Tehran for financial support of this research.
References
Abbaspour, K. C., Faramarzi, M., Seyed Ghasemi, S., and Yang, H. (2009). “Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran.” Water Resour. Res., 45(10), W10434.
Ahmadi, M., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Extraction of flexible multi-objective real-time reservoir operation rules.” Water Resour. Manage., 28(1), 131–147.
Ashofteh, P. S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Loáiciga, H. A. (2015a). “Evaluation of climatic-change impacts on multi-objective reservoir operation with multiobjective genetic programming.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 04015030.
Ashofteh, P.-S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Akbari-Alashti, H., and Mariño, M. A. (2015b). “Determination of irrigation allocation policy under climate change by genetic programming.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 04014059.
Ashofteh, P.-S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013a). “Climate change impact on reservoir performance indices in agricultural water supply.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 85–97.
Ashofteh, P.-S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013b). “Scenario assessment of streamflow simulation and its transition probability in future periods under climate change.” Water Resour. Manage., 27(1), 255–274.
Ashofteh, P.-S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2015c). “Risk analysis of water demand for agricultural crops under climate change.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 04014060.
Beygi, S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah-Mehdipour, E., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Bargaining models for optimal design of water distribution networks.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 92–99.
Bolouri-Yazdeli, Y., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah-Mehdipour, E., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Evaluation of real-time operation rules in reservoir systems operation.” Water Resour. Manage., 28(3), 715–729.
Bozorg-Haddad, O., Ashofteh, P.-S., Ali-Hamzeh, M., and Mariño, M. A. (2015a). “Investigation of reservoir qualitative behavior resulting from biological pollutant sudden entry.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 04015003.
Bozorg-Haddad, O., Ashofteh, P.-S., and Mariño, M. A. (2015b). “Levee’s layout and design optimization in protection of flood areas.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 04015004.
Bozorg-Haddad, O., Ashofteh, P.-S., Rasoulzadeh-Gharibdousti, S., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Optimization model for design-operation of pumped-storage and hydropower systems.” J. Energy Eng., 04013016.
Bozorg-Haddad, O., Rezapour Tabari, M. M., Fallah-Mehdipour, E., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Groundwater model calibration by meta-heuristic algorithms.” Water Resour. Manage., 27(7), 2515–2529.
Cong, Z., Yang, D., Gao, B., Yang, H., and Hu, H. (2009). “Hydrological trend analysis in the Yellow river basin using a distributed hydrological model.” Water Resour. Res., 45(7), W00A13.
Fallah-Mehdipour, E., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013a). “Extraction of optimal operation rules in aquifer-dam system: A genetic programming approach.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 872–879.
Fallah-Mehdipour, E., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013b). “Prediction and simulation of monthly groundwater levels by genetic programming.” J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 7(4), 253–260.
Garcia, E. S., and Loáiciga, H. A. (2013). “Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine floodplains.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 59(1–2), 204–220.
Gunawardhana, L. N., Kazama, S., and Kawagoe, S. (2011). “Impact of urbanization and climate change on aquifer thermal regimes.” Water Resour. Manage., 25(13), 3247–3276.
Guo, S. L., et al. (2005). “A semi-distributed monthly water balance model and its application in a climate change impact study in the middle and lower Yellow river basin.” Water Int., 30(2), 250–260.
Harma, K. J., Johnson, M. S., and Cohen, S. J. (2012). “Future water supply and demand in the Okanagan basin, British Columbia: A scenario-based analysis of multiple, interacting stressors.” Water Resour. Manage., 26(3), 667–689.
Hu, T. S., Lam, K. C., and Ng, S. T. (2001). “River flow time series prediction with a range dependent neural network.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 46(5), 729–745.
Huang, J., Zhang, Z., Feng, Y., and Hong, H. (2013). “Hydrologic response to climate change and human activities in a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China.” Reg. Environ. Change, 13(6), 1195–1210.
Huo, Z., Feng, S., Kang, S., Li, W., and Chen, S. (2008). “Effect of climate changes and water-related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north-west China.” Hydrol. Processes, 22(16), 3155–3167.
Jakeman, A. J., and Hornberger, G. M. (1993). “How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model?” Water Resour. Res., 29(8), 2637–2649.
Jiang, S., Ren, L., Yong, B., Singh, V. P., Yang, X., and Yuan, F. (2011). “Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different method.” Hydrol. Processes, 25(16), 2492–2505.
Kirono, D. G. C., Podger, G., Page, C. M., and Jones, R. N. (2006). “Assessment of the impacts of climate change on water supplies.” Rous Water Regional Water Supply New South Wales Dept. of Commerce, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Lin, J. Y., Cheng, C. T., and Chau, K. W. (2006). “Using support vector machines for long-term discharge prediction.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 51(4), 599–612.
Loáiciga, H. A., Valdes, J. B., Vogel, R., Garvey, J., and Schwarz, H. (1996). “Global warming and the hydrologic cycle.” J. Hydrol., 174(1–2), 83–127.
Lørup, J. K., Refsgaard, J. C., and Mazvimavi, D. (1998). “Assessing the effect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined use of statistical tests and hydrological modelling: Case studies from Zimbabwe.” J. Hydrol., 205(3–4), 147–163.
Moriasi, D. N. (2007). “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations.” Trans. ASABE, 50(3), 885–900.
Motondo, J. I., Peter, G., and Msibi, K. M. (2004). “Evaluation of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland: Part II.” Phys. Chem. Earth, 29(15–18), 1193–1202.
Orouji, H., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah-Mehdipour, E., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Modeling of water quality parameters using data-driven models.” J. Environ. Eng., 947–957.
Orouji, H., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah-Mehdipour, E., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Extraction of decision alternatives in project management: Application of hybrid PSO-SFLA.” J. Manage. Eng., 50–59.
Peng, S., et al. (2013). “Estimating the effects of climatic variability and human activities on streamfllow in the Hutuo river basin, China.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 422–430.
Raghunath, H. M. (2006). Hydrology, principles, analysis, design, New Age International Publishers, New Dehli, India, 24–26.
Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Water distribution network risk analysis under simultaneous consumption and roughness uncertainties.” Water Resour. Manage., 27(7), 2595–2610.
Shokri, A., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Reservoir operation for simultaneously meeting water demand and sediment flushing: A stochastic dynamic programming approach with two uncertainties.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 277–289.
Shokri, A., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2014). “Multi-objective quantity-quality reservoir operation in sudden pollution.” Water Resour. Manage., 28(2), 567–586.
Soltanjalili, M., Bozorg-Haddad, O., and Mariño, M. A. (2013). “Operating water distribution networks during water shortage conditions using hedging and intermittent water supply concepts.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 644–659.
Turgay, P., and Ercan, K. (2005). “Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data.” Hydrol. Processes, 20(9), 2011–2026.
Wang, J., Hong, Y., Gourley, J., Adhikari, P., Li, L., and Su, F. (2010). “Quantitative climate change and human impacts on long-term hydrologic response: A case study in sub-basin of the Yellow river, China.” Int. J. Climatol., 30(14), 2130–2137.
Wang, W., et al. (2012). “Reference evapotranspiration change and the causes across the Yellow river basin during 1957–2008 and their spatial and seasonal differences.” Water Resour. Res., 48(5).
Wang, W. G., Peng, S. Z., Yang, T., Shao, Q. X., Xu, J. Z., and Xing, W. Q. (2011). “Spatial and temporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration trends in the Haihe river basin, China.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 239–252.
Yang, Y. H., and Tian, F. (2009). “Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe river catchment China.” J. Hydrol., 374(3–4), 373–383.
Zahabiyoun, B., Goodarzi, M. R., Massah Bavani, A. R., and Azamathulla, H. M. (2013). “Assessment of climate change impact on the Gharesou river basin using SWAT hydrological model.” Clean-Soil Air Water, 41(6), 601–609.
Zhang, A., Zhang, C., Fu, G., Wang, B., Bao, Z., and Zheng, H. (2012). “Assessments of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with SWAT for the Huifa river basin, northeast China.” Water Resour. Manage., 26(8), 2199–2217.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 142 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 2, 2015
Accepted: Jan 27, 2016
Published online: Apr 22, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 22, 2016
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.