Towards an Operational Flow Forecasting System for the Upper Niagara River
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 146, Issue 9
Abstract
The authors developed a Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) model to serve as the key component of a new, first-of-its-kind, short-term operational flow forecasting system for the Niagara River. The Niagara River transports a continental-scale flow (with an annual mean of roughly ) that supports the economy of both the United States and Canada through hydropower generation, tourism, and other activities. The river also serves as a link connecting the two most downstream lakes (Lakes Erie and Ontario) in the largest system of lakes on Earth. Despite its significance, the authors know of no federally operated, short-term forecasting system for the Niagara River. Hydropower facilities management and other water resources management activities on the river have historically relied on an array of experimental, in-house, or proprietary models to simulate and forecast Niagara River flows. The study presented here fills this gap in large-scale hydraulic modeling and engineering science by calibrating a HEC–RAS model for the Upper Niagara River and customizing it to meet the operational requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Northeast River Forecasting Center (NERFC). The skill of the new forecasting system, which was recently deployed in its operational environment at the NERFC, will depend in large part on the accuracy of meteorological boundary conditions. The authors envision a more comprehensive assessment of the system’s forecasting skill and other potential future model improvements as an area for future research.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the authors by request.
Acknowledgments
Funding for this project was provided by NRCC, NYPA, and OPG. Funding was also provided by NOAA and USACE. The authors thank Lacey Mason for assistance creating figures. Laci Farczadi (OPG), Rich Mueller (NYPA), Peter Kowalski (NRCC), and Keith Koralewski (USACE) provided invaluable insight during model development and testing. Shannon Brines (University of Michigan), Matt McClerrren (USACE), Christian Smith (USACE), and Greg Lang (NOAA GLERL) helped with data management and analysis. Additional comments on this study were provided by Ed Capone (NERFC). This is NOAA GLERL Contribution No. 1948.
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Received: Sep 9, 2019
Accepted: Feb 18, 2020
Published online: Jul 10, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Dec 10, 2020
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