Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 142, Issue 6
Abstract
Typically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the change in water surface elevation (WSE) along an alluvial river (River Caldew, England) reach after 50 years of sediment transport. Changes in WSE are assessed when the reach is natural (no flood defences) and modified (with idealized flood defences). Results show that the construction of the flood defence scheme does not alter the overall morphological pattern of the reach but can significantly increase (260%) local aggradation. Additionally, 50 years of morphological change have the potential to increase WSE such that high flows, previously confined within the channel, can overtop the banks and become flood events; and that, the standard freeboard levels of the flood defence scheme may be insufficient to prevent overtopping when morphological change is considered. The method can be considered as a semiquantitative modeling methodology to account for the sediment-related sensitivity of flood risk management; and provides valuable insights into the potential magnitude that this has on future flood inundation.
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Acknowledgments
This research was carried out as part of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funded Flood MEMORY grant EP/K013513/1 held by HH. The authors thank the National River Flow Archive and the Environment Agency for the provision of the flow, cross-sectional and sediment data that enabled the work to be undertaken. Finally, the authors express their gratitude to the reviewers whose constructive comments improved the original manuscript.
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Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 142 • Issue 6 • June 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 25, 2014
Accepted: Nov 5, 2015
Published online: Feb 26, 2016
Published in print: Jun 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Jul 26, 2016
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