Quantifying Uncertainty and Reliability in Bridge Scour Estimations
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 141, Issue 7
Abstract
The majority of the bridges in the U.S. National Bridge Inventory (NBI) are built over waterways. Many will experience problems with scour, bank erosion, and channel instability during their design life. A number of studies in the recent past have attempted to quantify the uncertainty in predicting these erosional processes, particularly in pier scour, and developing probabilistic estimates of scour as a means of incorporating uncertainty. However, none of these studies have examined the overall uncertainty in local pier or abutment scour in combination with contraction scour. This study quantifies the model uncertainty in commonly used scour equations as well as parameter uncertainty. The overall reliability of the scour equations is then assessed for the individual components of scour and combined scour. The results lead to a set of scour design factors that are based on the reliability of the design estimate.
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Acknowledgments
This research was conducted as part of NCHRP Project 24-34 under the direction of the Principal Investigator, Dr. Peter Lagasse, P.E., M.ASCE.
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Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 141 • Issue 7 • July 2015
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 16, 2013
Accepted: Feb 4, 2015
Published online: Apr 21, 2015
Published in print: Jul 1, 2015
Discussion open until: Sep 21, 2015
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