Method for Assessing Impacts of Parameter Uncertainty in Sediment Transport Modeling Applications
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 137, Issue 6
Abstract
The predictions from a numerical sediment transport model inevitably include uncertainty because of assumptions in the model’s mathematical structure, the values of parameters, and various other sources. In this paper, the writers aim to develop a method that quantifies the degree to which parameter values are constrained by calibration data and the impacts of the remaining parameter uncertainty on model forecasts. The method uses a new multiobjective version of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. The likelihoods of parameter values are assessed using a function that weights different output variables on the basis of their first-order global sensitivities, which are obtained from the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. The method is applied to Sedimentation and River Hydraulics—One Dimension (SRH-1D) models of two flume experiments: an erosional case and a depositional case. Overall, the results suggest that the sensitivities of the model outputs to the parameters can be rather different for erosional and depositional cases and that the outputs in the depositional case can be sensitive to more parameters. The results also suggest that the form of the likelihood function can have a significant impact on the assessment of parameter uncertainty and its implications for the uncertainty of model forecasts.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for their financial support of this project and two anonymous reviewers for their help in improving this paper.
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Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 137 • Issue 6 • June 2011
Pages: 623 - 636
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 3, 2009
Accepted: Oct 14, 2010
Published online: Jan 13, 2011
Published in print: Jun 1, 2011
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