Detecting Hydrological Variability in Precipitation Extremes: Application of Reanalysis Climate Product in Data-Scarce Wabi Shebele Basin of Ethiopia
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 27, Issue 2
Abstract
Understanding climate data is essential for water resource management, flood risk assessment, agricultural planning, ecological modeling, and climate change adaptation. This study investigated the trends and variability of precipitation extremes to explore statistically significant trends in extreme hydrological conditions over the last 35 years in the Wabi Shebele basin of Ethiopia. Two reanalysis climate products: Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) were evaluated against ground observations using cumulative distribution function and statistical measures. The result shows that the CHIRPS data set performed well and captured the precipitation extremes measured by rain gauges. The Mann–Kendall trend test analysis conducted using three extreme precipitation indices: annual maximum precipitation (AMP) (i.e., annual highest 1-day precipitation amount), R10 (i.e., the yearly count of days when precipitation ), and R95P (i.e., 95% percentile precipitation events). The result indicates an increasing tendency over the western–eastern highland and southern part of the basin; In contrast, it indicates decreasing trends over the middle of the study area. Quantile perturbation analysis using R95P reveals high oscillations at 5-year intervals within a confidence interval (CI), particularly at the basin’s western–eastern highlands and southern lowlands. Since the 2000s, a periodicity analysis of maximum yearly precipitation using the autocorrelation function has revealed cycles at 2-year to 5-year intervals over the western–eastern highlands of the basin.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data and models that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. This includes reanalysis data sets: CHIRPS and ENACTS, observed precipitation data set for the study area, and ArcGis shape files.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency and the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity for providing the necessary data. Addis Ababa University financed the study.
References
Abebe, A., and G. Förch. 2006. “Catchment characteristics as predictors of base flow index (BFI) in Wabi-Shebele river basin, East Africa.” In Proc., Conf. on Int. Agricultural Research for Development. Siegen, Germany: Univ. of Siegen.
Abebe, W., S. A. M. Fraol, and B. K. Belete. 2021. “Trend and variability in flood discharge and attribution to climate change in Wabi Shebele river basin, Ethiopia.” In Advances of science and technology. Berlin: Springer.
Ahmad, I., D. Tang, T. Wang, M. Wang, and B. Wagan. 2015. “Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s Rho tests in Swat river basin, Pakistan.” Adv. Meteorol. 2015 (Jan): e431860. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860.
Akola, J., J. Binala, and J. Ochwo. 2018. “Guiding developments in flood-prone areas: Challenges and opportunities in dire Dawa City, Ethiopia.” Jamba: J. Disaster Risk Stud. 11 (3): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v11i3.704.
Awass, A. A. 2009. Hydrological drought analysis—Occurrence, severity, risks: The case of Wabi Shebele river basin, Ethiopia. Siegen, Germany: Univ. of Siegen.
Awulachew, S. B., A. D. Yilma, M. Loulseged, W. Loiskandl, M. Ayana, and T. Alamirew. 2007. Water resources and irrigation development in Ethiopia, 1–78. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute.
Dankers, R., N. W. Arnell, D. B. Clark, P. D. Falloon, B. S. M. Fekete, S. N. Gosling, and J. Heinke. 2014. “First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 111 (9): 3257–3261. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302078110.
Dinku, T., P. Block, J. Sharoff, K. Hailemariam, D. Osgood, J. del Corral, R. Cousin, and M. C. Thomson. 2014a. “Bridging critical gaps in climate services and applications in Africa.” Earth Perspec. 1 (2014): 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-15.
Dinku, T., K. Hailemariam, R. Maidment, E. Tarnavsky, and S. Connor. 2014b. “Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia.” Int. J. Climatol. 34 (7): 2489–2504. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3855.
Dinku, T., J. Hansen, A. Rose, B. Damen, and M. Sheinkman. 2020. “Enhancing national climate services (ENACTS) approach to support climate resilience in agriculture.” Accessed November 16, 2020. https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/enhancing-national-climate-services-enacts-approach-support-climate.
Emeribe, A., and B. Chukwudi. 2019. Trend analysis, cycles and periodicities in annual maximum daily rainfall distributions over Southern Nigeria. Benin, Nigeria: Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics.
EPCC (Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change). 2015. “Ethiopian panel on climate change, first assessment report, summary of reports for policy makers.” In Addis Ababa: Ethiopian academy of sciences. Ababa, Ethiopia: Ethiopian Academy of Sciences.
ERCS (Ethiopian Red Cross Society). 2005. Heavy rains and floods. Ababa, Ethiopia: ERCS.
Funk, C., P. Peterson, M. Landsfeld, D. Pedreros, J. Verdin, S. Shukla, and G. Husak. 2015. “The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—A new environmental record for monitoring extremes.” Sci. Data 2 (1): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66.
Gebrechorkos, S. H., S. Hülsmann, and C. Bernhofer. 2018. “Evaluation of multiple climate data sources for managing environmental resources in East Africa.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22 (8): 4547–4564. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4547-2018.
Gebru, S. Y. 2016. “The role of reservoirs in drought mitigation in Ethiopia, Awash river basin.” Master’s thesis, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology. http://www.secheresse.info/spip.php?article58143.
Higashino, M., and H. G. Stefan. 2019. “Variability and change of precipitation and flood discharge in a Japanese river basin.” J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud. 21 (Feb): 68–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.003.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change). 2001. “Climate change 2001: The scientific basis.” In Contribution of working group, I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Nouguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, 881. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change). 2014. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC.
IWMI (International Water Management Institute). 2015. “Drivers of hydrological dynamics in the Bale eco-region in Share Bale eco-region research report series no. 7.” Accessed March 27, 2019. https://phe-ethiopia.org/pdf/7.
Jenkins, G. J., P. Matthew, and P. John. 2009. “UKCIP09, and UK climate impacts programme.” In The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends. Exeter, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre.
Kay, S., M. Crooks, P. Pall, and D. A. Stone. 2011. “Attribution of autumn/winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: A catchment-based study.” J. Hydrol. 406 (1–2): 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.006.
Li, L., Y. Zou, Y. Li, H. Lin, and D. L. Liu. 2020. “Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China.” Hydrol. Res. 51 (3): 484–504. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2020.095.
Mann, H. B. 1945. “Nonparametric tests against trend.” Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. 1945 (Jul): 245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187.
Meng, F., T. Liu, Y. Huang, M. Luo, A. Bao, and D. Hou. 2016. “Quantitative detection and attribution of runoff variations in the Aksu river basin.” Water 8 (8): 338. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080338.
Moges, S. A., M. T. Taye, P. Willems, and M. Gebremichael. 2014. “Exceptional pattern of extreme rainfall variability at urban centre of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.” Urban Water J. 11 (7): 596–604. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2013.831914.
Moriasi, A., M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Bingner, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith. 2007. “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations.” Trans. ASABE 50 (3): 885–900. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153.
MoWR (Ministry of Water Resources). 2003. Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) Wabi Shebele river basin integrated master plan study project. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: MoWR.
MoWR (Ministry of Water Resources). 2004. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water Resources, Wabi Shebele river basin, integrated development master plan study project, Volume III—Natural resources, Part 7—Soils (No. II). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: MoWR.
NMA (National Meteorology Agency). 1996. “Climatic and agroclimatic resources of Ethiopia.” Accessed November 25, 2020. https://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET9700128.
Ntegeka, V., and P. Willems. 2008. “Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100-year time series of 10 min rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium: Oscillations in RAI.” Water Resour. Res. 44 (7): 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006471.
Onyutha, C. 2016. “Statistical analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes over the period 1930–2012 in the Nile river Riparian countries.” Agric. For. Meteorol. 226–227 (Oct): 80–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.05.015.
Podesta, J., and J. Holdren. 2014. “The U.S. and China just announced important new actions to reduce carbon pollution.” Accessed January 27, 2021. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/11/12/us-and-china-just-announced-important-new-actions-reduce-carbon-pollution.
Seleshi, Y., and U. Zanke. 2004. “Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia.” Int. J. Climatol. 24 (8): 973–983. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052.
Sen, P. K. 1968. “Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63 (324): 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934.
Sheng, Y., and C. Y. Wang. 2002. “Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation.” Int. J. Climatol. 22 (8): 933–946. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.781.
Shiferaw, A., J. S. Ahmed, T. Gisella, T. Gebremariam, A. Amsalu, and G. Jember. 2015. Ethiopian panel on climate change (2015), first assessment report, Working Group I physical science basis. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ethiopian Academy of Sciences.
Tabari, H., A. AghaKouchak, and P. Willems. 2014. “A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran.” J. Hydrol. 519 (Nov): 1420–1427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.019.
Tadesse, T., T. Haigh, N. Wall, A. Shiferaw, B. Zaitchik, S. Beyene, G. Berhan, and J. Petr. 2016. “Linking seasonal predictions to decision-making and disaster management in the greater Horn of Africa.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 (4): 89–92. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00269.1.
Talchabhadel, R., R. Karki, B. Raj Thapa, M. Maharjan, and B. Parajuli. 2018. “Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Nepal.” Int. J. Climatol. 38 (11): 4296–4313. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5669.
Taye, M. T., and P. Willems. 2012. “Temporal variability of hydroclimatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin: Temporal variability of hydroclimatic extremes.” Water Resour. Res. 48 (3): W03513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011466.
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 1999. “Drought and floods stress livelihoods and food security in the Ethiopian Somali Region—Ethiopia.” Accessed November 25, 2020. https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/drought-and-floods-stress-livelihoods-and-food-security-ethiopian-somali-region.
Von Storch, H. 1999. “Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research.” In Analysis of climate variability, 11–26. Berlin: Springer.
Wanders, N. 2015. “Hydrological extremes: Improving simulations of flood and drought in Large river basins.” Accessed November 28, 2020. http://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/310177/Wanders.pdf?sequence=1.
Welch, B. L. 1959. “The advanced theory of statistics: Vol. I—Distribution theory.” J. R. Stat. Soc. 122 (1): 99–100. https://doi.org/10.2307/2343053.
Wilby, R. L., C. W. Dawson, and E. M. Barrow. 2002. “SDSM—A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts.” Environ. Modell. Software 17 (2): 145–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00060-3.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2013. “World meteorological organization (WMO No. 8): Guide to meteorological instruments and methods of observation.” Accessed December 7, 2013. https://metmalaysiaeducation.wordpress.com/wmo-no-8-guide-to-meteorological-instruments-and-methods-of-observation/.
Woldegebrael, B. K., and A. Melesse. 2019. “Historical flood events and hydrological extremes in Ethiopia.” In Extreme hydrology and climate variability, 379–384. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Wudineh, F. A., S. A. Moges, and B. B. Kidanewold. 2021. “Flood change detection and attribution using simulation approach in data-scarce watersheds: A case of Wabi Shebele river basin, Ethiopia.” J. Water Resour. Prot. 13 (5): 362–393. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2021.135023.
Yue, K., and L. Wang. 2019. “Detection of changes.” In Changes in flood risk in Europe. London: CRC Press.
Yue, S., P. Pilon, and G. Cavadias. 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Yue, S., P. Pilon, and B. Phinney. 2003. “Canadian streamflow trend detection: Impacts of serial and cross-correlation.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 48 (1): 51–63. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.51.43478.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 27 • Issue 2 • February 2022
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 12, 2021
Accepted: Oct 29, 2021
Published online: Dec 10, 2021
Published in print: Feb 1, 2022
Discussion open until: May 10, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Biruk Tagesse Lambe, Subrahmanya Kundapura, Recent Changes in Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Bilate River Basin of Rift Valley, Ethiopia, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-5853, 28, 7, (2023).
- Mohamad Najib Ibrahim, Assessment of the Uncertainty Associated with Statistical Modeling of Precipitation Extremes for Hydrologic Engineering Applications in Amman, Jordan, Sustainability, 10.3390/su142417052, 14, 24, (17052), (2022).
- Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales, Daniele Torres Rodrigues, Spatiotemporal nonhomogeneous poisson model with a seasonal component applied to the analysis of extreme rainfall, Journal of Applied Statistics, 10.1080/02664763.2022.2064978, (1-19), (2022).
- undefined Roshani, Haroon Sajjad, Tamal Kanti Saha, Md Hibjur Rahaman, Md Masroor, Yatendra Sharma, Swades Pal, Analyzing trend and forecast of rainfall and temperature in Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India, using non-parametric test and random forest machine learning algorithm, Acta Geophysica, 10.1007/s11600-022-00978-2, 71, 1, (531-552), (2022).