Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of the Weihe River Annual Runoff Series Using De-Nonstationarity Method
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 11
Abstract
Climate change and human activity has increased the degree of nonstationarity in the annual runoff series of the Weihe River Basin, making it difficult to conduct a traditional hydrological frequency analysis in this study area. Most of the existing nonstationary frequency analysis methods are still controversial and cannot be applied in practice. Furthermore, the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series is caused by nonstationary changes in some specific influencing factors. In this study, we remove the nonstationarity from the annual runoff series by quantifying the relationship between the annual runoff and its driving factors. This denonstationarity process removes the nonstationary influence of the driving factors and is not limited to some specific types of nonstationarity, such as trend and abrupt change. For the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the annual average temperature , irrigation area , and reservoir index are used as the reconstruction factors, respectively. And the decreasing trends in the first and second moments, and an abrupt change in 1993 are removed simultaneously by this denonstationarity method. The stationarity of the denonstationarity series reconstructed by is the best, followed by the denonstationarity series reconstructed by the and the . Climate change has a more significant impact than human activity on the nonstationary change of the annual runoff. Once the reconstructed series are stationary, the traditional hydrological frequency analysis method is adopted. Reconstructed series with a higher degree of stationarity result in lower uncertainties in the design quantile of the annual runoff, whereas the significant nonstationarity in the original series results in large design value uncertainties.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51679184). We thank LetPub (www.letpub.com) for its linguistic assistance during the preparation of this manuscript.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26 • Issue 11 • November 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 10, 2020
Accepted: Jun 22, 2021
Published online: Sep 8, 2021
Published in print: Nov 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Feb 8, 2022
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