Comparison of Likelihood-Free Inference Approach and a Formal Bayesian Method in Parameter Uncertainty Assessment: Case Study with a Single-Event Rainfall–Runoff Model
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 3
Abstract
In the present study, and (which stands for differential evolution adaptive metropolis) algorithms were applied to determine the parameters’ uncertainty in a single-event rainfall–runoff model, and rainfall multipliers were also used to correct rainfall forcing errors. Moreover, , based on the original DREAM algorithm, and the algorithm, as a likelihood-free inference approach, were both used to explore the posterior parameters in high-dimensional inference problems. Before comparing with , some underlying assumptions of residual distribution were analyzed and then fulfilled to obtain a suitable likelihood function and also to provide a more reliable estimation of the parameters. Despite the use of an acceptable likelihood function in the algorithm, the results confirm the advantage of the for assessing the uncertainty in a single-event model and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, an acceptable distance function used in is suggested to assess the uncertainty in a single-event rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS). Occasional flash floods occur in this study region and in large parts of Iran. The results of this study can, therefore, be useful for achieving more accurate predictions and planning for flood control management.
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Data Availability Statement
The data used in the paper were obtained from the Iran Water Research Institute (IWRI) and Natural Resources and Watershed Management Administration of Golestan, Iran. Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Dr. Jasper A. Vrugt profusely for providing the code for the and algorithms. The author is grateful for the data and information received on the case study from Dr. Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26 • Issue 3 • March 2021
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 16, 2020
Accepted: Oct 16, 2020
Published online: Dec 18, 2020
Published in print: Mar 1, 2021
Discussion open until: May 18, 2021
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