Nonstationary Modeling of Meteorological Droughts: Application to a Region in India
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 2
Abstract
In the continually climate change scenario, it is of great concern to revisit, rethink, and improve the existing computational aspects of drought indexes. In general, the commonly used drought indexes do not encompass environmental changes. Hence, the primary objective of this study was to incorporate large-scale climatic oscillations in developing the nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index () and Reconnaissance Drought Index (). The nonstationary modeling of the drought index is performed using the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) over 103 grid points covering Maharashtra state in India. The computed nonstationary drought indexes are then used to examine the spatiotemporal variability of drought over the province. The outcomes from the analysis indicate that nonstationary modeling outperforms a stationary approach over the study area for different drought scales. In addition, notable differences are observed while comparing the different drought properties using stationary and nonstationary drought indexes. A comparative analysis of the historical drought that occurred in 2013 reveals that nonstationarity in the meteorological data sets cannot be ignored for developing a sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategy against drought hazard. The proposed nonstationarity-based drought indexes for Maharashtra can be a feasible alternative of drought assessment in a changing climate scenario.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request, including historical meteorological data and the code for the nonstationary analysis.
References
Aadhar, S., and V. Mishra. 2017. “High-resolution near real-time drought monitoring in South Asia.” Sci. Data 4 (1): 170145. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.145.
Abramowitz, M., and I. A. Stegun. 1965. Handbook of mathematical functions. New York: Dover Publications.
Agilan, V., and N. V. Umamahesh. 2018. “El Niño Southern oscillation cycle indicator for modeling extreme rainfall intensity over India.” Ecol. Indic. 84 (Jan): 450–458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.09.012.
Akaike, H. 1974. “A new look at the statistical model identification.” IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 19 (6): 716–723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
Alexander, L. V., P. Uotila, and N. Nicholls. 2009. “Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes.” J. Geophys. Res. 114 (D18): D18116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012301.
Anderson, M. C., J. M. Norman, J. R. Mecikalski, J. A. Otkin, and W. P. Kustas. 2007. “A climatological study of evapotranspiration and moisture stress across the continental United States based on thermal remote sensing. 1: Model formulation.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 112 (D10): 17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007506.
Ashok, K., and N. H. Saji. 2007. “On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall.” Nat. Hazard. 42 (2): 273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9091-0.
Bazrafshan, J. 2017. “Effect of air temperature on historical trend of long-term droughts in different climates of Iran.” Water Resour. Manage. 31 (14): 4683–4698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1773-8.
Bazrafshan, J., and S. Hejabi. 2018. “A non-stationary reconnaissance drought index (NRDI) for drought monitoring in a changing climate.” Water Resour. Manage. 32 (8): 2611–2624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1947-z.
Beguería, S., and S. M. Vicente-Serrano. 2017. “Package SPEI: Calculation of the standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index.” Accessed December 1, 2019. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/SPEI/index.html.
Brown, J. F., B. D. Wardlow, T. Tadesse, M. J. Hayes, and B. C. Reed. 2008. “The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI): A new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation.” GISci. Remote Sens. 45 (1): 16–46. https://doi.org/10.2747/1548-1603.45.1.16.
Cai, W., A. Santoso, G. Wang, E. Weller, L. Wu, K. Ashok, Y. Masumoto, and T. Yamagata. 2014. “Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.” Nature 510 (7504): 254–258. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13327.
Cavazos, T., and D. Rivas. 2004. “Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico.” Clim. Res. 25 (3): 229–243. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025229.
Chang, X., B. Wang, Y. Yan, Y. Hao, and M. Zhang. 2019. “Characterizing effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on precipitation in China using wavelet coherence and global coherence.” Clim. Dyn. 52 (9–10): 5213–5228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4439-1.
Chattopadhyay, R., R. Phani, C. T. Sabeerali, A. R. Dhakate, K. D. Salunke, S. Mahapatra, A. S. Rao, and B. N. Goswami. 2015. “Influence of extratropical sea-surface temperature on the Indian summer monsoon: An unexplored source of seasonal predictability.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141 (692): 2760–2775. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2562.
Cole, T. J., and P. J. Green. 1992. “Smoothing reference Centile curves: The LMS method and penalized likelihood.” Stat. Med. 11 (10): 1305–1319. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780111005.
Dandekar, P. 2013. “Drought in Maharashtra: The real story.” India Together, March 14, 2013.
Das, J., S. Jha, and M. K. Goyal. 2020a. “Non-stationary and copula-based approach to assess the drought characteristics encompassing climate indices over the Himalayan states in India.” J. Hydrol. 580 (Jan): 124356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124356.
Das, J., S. Jha, and M. K. Goyal. 2020b. “On the relationship of climatic and monsoon teleconnections with monthly precipitation over meteorologically homogenous regions in India: Wavelet & global coherence approaches.” Atmos. Res. 238 (Jul): 104889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104889.
Das, J., and N. V. Umamahesh. 2017. “Uncertainty and non-stationarity in streamflow extremes under climate change scenarios over a river basin.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 22 (10): 04017042. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001571.
Debele, S. E., W. G. Strupczewski, and E. Bogdanowicz. 2017. “A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis.” Acta Geophys. 65 (4): 863–883. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0071-4.
Dutta, D., A. Kundu, and N. R. Patel. 2013. “Predicting agricultural drought in eastern Rajasthan of India using NDVI and standardized precipitation index.” Geocarto Int. 28 (3): 192–209. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2012.679975.
Forootan, E., et al. 2019. “Understanding the global hydrological droughts of 2003–2016 and their relationships with teleconnections.” Sci. Total Environ. 650 (Feb): 2587–2604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.231.
Ganguli, P., and M. J. Reddy. 2013. “Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought risks over western Rajasthan in India.” J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122 (1): 253–269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-012-0247-x.
Geethalakshmi, V., A. Yatagai, K. Palanisamy, and C. Umetsu. 2009. “Impact of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the north-east monsoon rainfall of Tamil Nadu State in India.” Hydrol. Process. 23 (4): 633–647. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7191.
Gore, P. G., and K. C. S. Ray. 2002. “Variability in drought incidence over districts of Maharashtra.” Mausam 53 (4): 533–538.
Gu, G., R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, and S. Curtis. 2007. “Tropical rainfall variability on interannual-to-interdecadal and longer time scales derived from the GPCP monthly product.” J. Clim. 20 (15): 4033–4046. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4227.1.
Guo, D., S. Westra, and H. R. Maier. 2017. “Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to changes in climate variables for different Australian climatic zones.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 21 (4): 2107–2126. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017.
Hao, Z., and A. AghaKouchak. 2013. “Multivariate standardized drought index: A parametric multi-index model.” Adv. Water Resour. 57 (Jul): 12–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.03.009.
Hao, Z., and A. AghaKouchak. 2014. “A nonparametric multivariate multi-index drought monitoring framework.” J. Hydrometeorol. 15 (1): 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0160.1.
He, X., and H. Guan. 2013. “Multiresolution analysis of precipitation teleconnections with large-scale climate signals: A case study in South Australia.” Water Resour. Res. 49 (10): 6995–7008. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20560.
Heim, R. R. 2002. “A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83 (8): 1149–1166. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1149.
Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, and J. Perlwitz. 2010. “Regional precipitation trends: Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing.” J. Clim. 23 (8): 2131–2145. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1.
Hu, J., and A. Duan. 2015. “Relative contributions of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing and the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature basin mode to the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.” Clim. Dyn. 45 (9–10): 2697–2711. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2503-7.
Hu, Q., and S. Feng. 2001. “Variations of teleconnection of ENSO and interannual variation in summer rainfall in the Central United States.” J. Clim. 14 (11): 2469–2480. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3C2469:VOTOEA%3E2.0.CO;2.
Huang, S., Q. Huang, J. Chang, and G. Leng. 2016. “Linkages between hydrological drought, climate indices and human activities: A case study in the Columbia River basin.” Int. J. Climatol. 36 (1): 280–290. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4344.
Ionita, M., C. Boroneanṭ, and S. Chelcea. 2015. “Seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their connections with large scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature.” Clim. Dyn. 45 (9–10): 2803–2829. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2508-2.
Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, N. Rimbu, S. Chelcea, and M. Dima. 2012. “Interannual to decadal summer drought variability over Europe and its relationship to global sea surface temperature.” Clim. Dyn. 38 (1–2): 363–377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1028-y.
Jarvis, A., H. I. Reuter, A. Nelson, and E. Guevara. 2008. “Hole-filled SRTM for the globe version 4.” Accessed December 1, 2019. http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/.
Kalnay, E., et al. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.” Accessed December 1, 2019. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html.
Kendall, M. G. 1955. Rank correlation methods. Oxford, UK: Hafner.
Li, C., V. P. Singh, and A. K. Mishra. 2013. “A bivariate mixed distribution with a heavy-tailed component and its application to single-site daily rainfall simulation.” Water Resour. Res. 49 (2): 767–789. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20063.
Li, J. Z., Y. X. Wang, S. F. Li, and R. Hu. 2015. “A nonstationary standardized precipitation index incorporating climate indices as covariates.” J. Geophys. Res. 120 (23): 12082–12095. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023920.
Liu, Q., and Z. Yang. 2010. “Quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration in the Yellow River basin, China.” J. Hydrol. 395 (3–4): 226–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.031.
Lloyd-Hughes, B. 2014. “The impracticality of a universal drought definition.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 117 (3–4): 607–611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1025-7.
Maity, R., and D. N. Kumar. 2007. “Hydroclimatic teleconnection between global sea surface temperature and rainfall over India at subdivisional monthly scale.” Hydrol. Process. 21 (14): 1802–1813. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6300.
Mamalakis, A., A. Langousis, R. Deidda, and M. Marrocu. 2017. “A parametric approach for simultaneous bias correction and high-resolution downscaling of climate model rainfall.” Water Resour. Res. 53 (3): 2149–2170. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019578.
McCabe, G. J., J. L. Betancourt, S. T. Gray, M. A. Palecki, and H. G. Hidalgo. 2008. “Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought.” Quat. Int. 188 (1): 31–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.07.001.
McCormick, B. C., K. N. Eshleman, J. L. Griffith, and P. A. Townsend. 2009. “Detection of flooding responses at the river basin scale enhanced by land use change.” Water Resour. Res. 45 (8): 15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007594.
Mckee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist. 1993. “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.” In Proc., AMS 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology, 179–184. Boston: American Meteorological Society.
Meza, F. J. 2013. “Recent trends and ENSO influence on droughts in Northern Chile: An application of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.” Weather Clim. Extremes 1 (Sep): 51–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.002.
Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer. 2008. “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?” Science 319 (5863): 573–574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915.
Mishra, A. K., and V. P. Singh. 2010. “A review of drought concepts.” J. Hydrol. 391 (1–2): 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012.
Mishra, A. K., V. P. Singh, and V. R. Desai. 2009. “Drought characterization: A probabilistic approach.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 23 (1): 41–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0194-2.
Mishra, V., B. V. Smoliak, D. P. Lettenmaier, and J. M. Wallace. 2012. “A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109 (19): 7213–7217. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1119150109.
Mu, Q., M. Zhao, J. S. Kimball, N. G. McDowell, and S. W. Running. 2013. “A remotely sensed global terrestrial drought severity index.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94 (1): 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00213.1.
New, M., M. Todd, M. Hulme, and P. Jones. 2001. “Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century.” Int. J. Climatol. 21 (15): 1889–1922. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.680.
Niranjan Kumar, K., M. Rajeevan, D. S. Pai, A. K. Srivastava, and B. Preethi. 2013. “On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India.” Weather Clim. Extremes 1 (Sep): 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006.
Niu, J., J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar. 2014. “Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in Southern China.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (4): 1475–1492. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1475-2014.
Núñez, J., D. Rivera, R. Oyarzún, and J. L. Arumí. 2014. “On the use of standardized drought indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications.” J. Hydrol. 517 (Sep): 458–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.038.
Pai, D. S., L. Sridhar, M. Rajeevan, O. P. Sreejith, N. S. Satbhai, and B. Mukhopadyay. 2014. “Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region.” Mausam 65 (1): 1–18.
Palmer, W. C. 1965. Meteorological drought: Research paper no. 45. Washington, DC: US Weather Bureau.
Park, J., J. H. Sung, Y.-J. Lim, and H.-S. Kang. 2019. “Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 136 (1–2): 529–542. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2500-y.
Parsons, D. J., D. Rey, M. Tanguy, and I. P. Holman. 2019. “Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought.” Agric. Syst. 173 (Jul): 119–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.015.
Paul, B. K., and H. Rashid. 2017. “Tropical cyclones and storm surges.” In Climatic hazards in coastal Bangladesh, 35–81. Oxford, UK: Elsevier.
Peng, Z., Q. J. Wang, J. C. Bennett, P. Pokhrel, and Z. Wang. 2014. “Seasonal precipitation forecasts over China using monthly large-scale oceanic-atmospheric indices.” J. Hydrol. 519 (Nov): 792–802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.012.
Penman, H. L. 1948. “Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass.” Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 193 (1032): 120–145.
Rashid, M. M., and S. Beecham. 2019. “Development of a non-stationary standardized precipitation index and its application to a South Australian climate.” Sci. Total Environ. 657 (Mar): 882–892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.052.
Reddy, M. J., and P. Ganguli. 2012. “Risk assessment of hydroclimatic variability on groundwater levels in the Manjara basin aquifer in India using Archimedean copulas.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 17 (12): 1345–1357. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000564.
Reynolds, R. W., T. M. Smith, C. Liu, D. B. Chelton, K. S. Casey, and M. G. Schlax. 2007. “Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature.” Accessed December 1, 2019. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indexes/.
Rigby, R. A., and D. M. Stasinopoulos. 1996. “A semi-parametric additive model for variance heterogeneity.” Stat. Comput. 6 (1): 57–65. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00161574.
Rigby, R. A., and D. M. Stasinopoulos. 2005. “Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (with discussion).” J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C (Appl. Stat.) 54 (3): 507–554.
Ropelewski, C. F., and P. D. Jones. 1987. “An extension of the Tahiti–Darwin southern oscillation index.” Accessed December 1, 2019. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml.
Roxy, M. K., K. Ritika, P. Terray, R. Murtugudde, K. Ashok, and B. N. Goswami. 2015. “Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient.” Nat. Commun. 6 (1): 7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423.
Roy, I. 2017. “Indian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation in CMIP5 models: A few areas of agreement and disagreement.” Atmosphere 8 (12): 154. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8080154.
Roy, I., R. G. Tedeschi, and M. Collins. 2019. “ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon under changing climate.” Int. J. Climatol. 39 (6): 3031–3042. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5999.
Russo, S., A. Dosio, A. Sterl, P. Barbosa, and J. Vogt. 2013. “Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary standardized precipitation indices.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118 (14): 7628–7639. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50571.
Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata. 1999. “A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.” Nature 401 (6751): 360–363.
Salvi, K., and S. Ghosh. 2016. “Projections of extreme dry and wet spells in the 21st century India using stationary and non-stationary standardized precipitation indices.” Clim. Change 139 (3–4): 667–681. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1824-9.
Shabbar, A., and W. Skinner. 2004. “Summer drought patterns in Canada and the relationship Toglobal sea surface temperatures.” J. Clim. 17 (14): 2866–2880. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2866:SDPICA%3E2.0.CO;2.
Shah, R. D., and V. Mishra. 2015. “Development of an experimental near-real-time drought monitor for India.” J. Hydrometeorol. 16 (1): 327–345. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0041.1.
Shukla, S., and A. W. Wood. 2008. “Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (2): L02405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487.
Soľáková, T., C. De Michele, and R. Vezzoli. 2014. “Comparison between parametric and non-parametric approaches for the calculation of two drought indices: SPI and SSI.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 19 (9): 04014010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000942.
Srivastava, A. K., M. Rajeevan, and S. R. Kshirsagar. 2009. “Development of a high resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969–2005) for the Indian region.” Atmos. Sci. Lett. 10 (4): 249–254.
Stasinopoulos, D. M., and R. A. Rigby. 2007. “Generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) in R.” J. Stat. Software 23 (7): 1–46. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v023.i07.
Subash, N., H. S. Ram Mohan, and A. K. Sikka. 2011. “Decadal frequency and trends of extreme excess/deficit rainfall during the monsoon season over different meteorological sub-divisions of India.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 56 (7): 1090–1109. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.608677.
Tigkas, D., H. Vangelis, and G. Tsakiris. 2019. “Drought characterisation based on an agriculture-oriented standardised precipitation index.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 135 (3–4): 1435–1447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2451-3.
Trenberth, K. E. 2011. “Changes in precipitation with climate change.” Clim. Res. 47 (1): 123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953.
Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, G. Van Der Schrier, P. D. Jones, J. Barichivich, K. R. Briffa, and J. Sheffield. 2014. “Global warming and changes in drought.” Nat. Clim. Change 4 (1): 17–22. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067.
Trenberth, K. E., P. D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J. A. Renwick, and M. Rusticucci. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Tsakiris, G., and H. Vangelis. 2005. “Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration.” Eur. Water 9 (10): 3–11.
Turner, A. G., P. M. Inness, and J. M. Slingo. 2005. “The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131 (607): 781–804. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.70.
Udmale, P. D., Y. Ichikawa, A. S. Kiem, and S. N. Panda. 2014. “Drought impacts and adaptation strategies for agriculture and rural livelihood in the Maharashtra State of India.” Open Agric. J. 8 (1): 41–47. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874331501408010041.
Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, P. R. Briggs, M. H. England, P. C. McIntosh, G. A. Meyers, M. J. Pook, M. R. Raupach, and J. S. Risbey. 2011. “Indian and pacific ocean influences on Southeast Australian drought and soil moisture.” J. Clim. 24 (5): 1313–1336. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3475.1.
Van Loon, A. F. 2015. “Hydrological drought explained.” Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water 2 (4): 359–392. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085.
Verdon-Kidd, D. C., and A. S. Kiem. 2009. “Nature and causes of protracted droughts in southeast Australia: Comparison between the federation, WWII, and big dry droughts.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (22): L22707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041067.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno. 2010. “A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.” J. Clim. 23 (7): 1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., J. I. López-Moreno, L. Gimeno, R. Nieto, E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. Beguería, and C. Azorin-Molina. 2011. “A multiscalar global evaluation of the impact of ENSO on droughts.” J. Geophys. Res. 116 (D20): D20109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016039.
Villarini, G., J. A. Smith, and F. Napolitano. 2010. “Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome.” Adv. Water Resour. 33 (10): 1256–1267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.03.013.
Villarini, G., J. A. Smith, F. Serinaldi, and A. A. Ntelekos. 2011. “Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for central Europe.” J. Hydrol. 399 (3–4): 299–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.007.
Wang, B. 2000. “Commentary and analysis: Comments on ‘Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices.’” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81 (4): 822–824. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081%3C0822:REPLY%3E2.3.CO;2.
Wang, B., and Z. Fan. 1999. “Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices.” Accessed December 1, 2019. http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/monsoon/seasonal-monidx.html.
Wang, B., R. Wu, and K. M. Lau. 2001. “Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons.” J. Clim. 14 (20): 4073–4090. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3C4073:IVOTAS%3E2.0.CO;2.
Wang, Y., L. Duan, T. Liu, J. Li, and P. Feng. 2020. “A non-stationary standardized streamflow index for hydrological drought using climate and human-induced indices as covariates.” Sci. Total Environ. 699 (Jan): 134278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134278.
Wang, Y., J. Li, P. Feng, and F. Chen. 2015a. “Effects of large-scale climate patterns and human activities on hydrological drought: A case study in the Luanhe River basin, China.” Nat. Hazard. 76 (3): 1687–1710. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1564-y.
Wang, Y., J. Li, P. Feng, and R. Hu. 2015b. “A time-dependent drought index for non-stationary precipitation series.” Water Resour. Manage. 29 (15): 5631–5647. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1138-0.
Wang, Y., T. Zhang, X. Chen, J. Li, and P. Feng. 2018. “Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 131 (3–4): 1369–1385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2059-z.
Wilhite, D. A., and M. H. Glantz. 1985. “Understanding: The drought phenomenon: The role of definitions.” Water Int. 10 (3): 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328.
Wilhite, D. A., M. V. K. Sivakumar, and R. Pulwarty. 2014. “Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy.” Weather Clim. Extremes 3 (Jun): 4–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002.
WMO and GWP (World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership). 2016. Handbook of drought indicators and indices: Integrated drought management programme (IDMP). Geneva: WMO.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 1999. World Meteorological Organization—Annual report 1998. Geneva: WMO.
Xiao, M., Q. Zhang, V. P. Singh, and L. Liu. 2016. “Transitional properties of droughts and related impacts of climate indices in the Pearl River basin, China.” J. Hydrol. 534 (Mar): 397–406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.012.
Yang, Q., Z. Ma, X. Fan, Z.-L. Yang, Z. Xu, and P. Wu. 2017. “Decadal modulation of precipitation patterns over Eastern China by sea surface temperature anomalies.” J. Clim. 30 (17): 7017–7033. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0793.1.
Yevjevich, V. M. 1967. Objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts: Hydrology papers no. 23. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State Univ.
Zarch, M. A. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma. 2015. “Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI).” J. Hydrol. 526 (Jul): 183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071.
Zargar, A., R. Sadiq, B. Naser, and F. I. Khan. 2011. “A review of drought indices.” Environ. Rev. 19: 333–349. https://doi.org/10.1139/a11-013.
Zhang, A., C. Zhang, G. Fu, B. Wang, Z. Bao, and H. Zheng. 2012. “Assessments of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River basin, Northeast China.” Water Resour. Manage. 26 (8): 2199–2217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0010-8.
Zhang, X., R. Obringer, C. Wei, N. Chen, and D. Niyogi. 2017. “Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and implications to wheat production.” Sci. Rep. 7: 44552. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44552.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26 • Issue 2 • February 2021
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 6, 2020
Accepted: Sep 25, 2020
Published online: Nov 24, 2020
Published in print: Feb 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Apr 24, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.