Projection of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration under Future Climate Change in Poyang Lake Watershed, China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 1
Abstract
Reference crop evapotranspiration () is of great importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on hydrological cycles and the global energy balance. The spatiotemporal change of and the drought response over Poyang Lake watershed of China from 2011 to 2100 are the main concern in this work. Based on the meteorological data and the output of the general circulation model (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we used the Penman–Monteith formula and downscaling model to calculate the history and future in Poyang Lake watershed, respectively. Major results are drawn as follows. First, the annual average decreased during 1961–2014 and the average of the basin is high in the north and south, but low in the middle. The was most dominated by sunshine duration in the spring, summer, and fall and by relative humidity in the winter. Second, the downscaling model has a good simulation effect, and the GCM data-downscaling simulation results are significantly improved after the deviation correction. Third, under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, in the Poyang Lake watershed will increase over the next three periods, with the middle future (2041–2070) as the largest increase period. The spatial distribution of is generally high in the east and low in the west. Fourth, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the drought index (DI) of the watershed showed an increasing trend, the seasonal distribution of DI is , and the Ganjiang River subbasin will be the key prevention area for future drought risks. The results can provide basic data support for the optimal management of water resources and scientific response to the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the watershed for associated policymakers and stakeholders.
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Data Availability Statement
Data generated by the authors or analyzed during the study are available at the following: (1) historical meteorological data from 14 national meteorological observatory stations in Poyang Lake watershed from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Center for the period of 1961–2014 are available at http://data.cma.cn/; (2) daily NCEP reanalysis dataset is available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html; and (3) the CNRM-CM5 model, as introduced by the French Meteorological Research Center, is available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/.
Acknowledgments
This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program (2017YFB0504103), the Frontier Project of Applied Foundation of Wuhan (2019020701011502), the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (2019CFB736), Key Research and Development Program of Jiangxi Province (20201BBG71002), the Graduate Education Innovation Funding Project of Central China Normal University (2019CXZZ005), and the LIESMARS Special Research Funding.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26 • Issue 1 • January 2021
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 29, 2019
Accepted: Jul 13, 2020
Published online: Oct 23, 2020
Published in print: Jan 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Mar 23, 2021
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