Understanding the Uncertainty of the Lim River Basin Response to Changing Climate
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 9
Abstract
This study addresses how uncertainty propagates within climate models, statistical postprocessing tools, and the hydrological model, while taking into account the observed forcing and response of the hydrological system. Propagation of uncertainty is assessed using three regional climate models (RCMs), four bias correction methods (BCMs), two averaging methods, three representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios, and a single hydrological model. The hydrological simulations are performed for the baseline period 1971–2000, and for the future time period 2006–2055. The Lim River basin in Serbia (southeast Europe) is selected as the study region. The dominant sources of uncertainty are the bias correction methods (9.7%–16.1%), whereas uncertainty from the choice of regional climate models is generally smaller (7.4%–13.9%). The results from the hydrological simulations for the future time period suggest relatively moderate annual changes in streamflows, from to under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The most significant changes are expected at the seasonal level, especially for the winter flows ranging from to .
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions.
Observed hydroclimate data – may not be distributed
Hydrological model – may not be reproduced or distributed
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge financial support provided to the second author by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 9 • September 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 4, 2019
Accepted: Mar 11, 2020
Published online: Jun 24, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 24, 2020
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