Abstract
Forecasted changes to climate were used to model variations in the streamflow characteristics of a northern Virginia catchment. Two emission scenarios were applied from international climate projections along with four general circulation models (GCMs) by using two statistical downscaling methods to drive the hydrological simulations in two future time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). Incorporation of these factors yielded 32 runoff simulation models for a watershed located in northern Virginia. These models were compared with historical streamflow data from the late 20th century. Changes in streamflow were compared using median, low, and high flows. Results showed a general increase in median flows in both the mid- and late 21st century. Low flows were projected to decrease, whereas high flows were projected to increase, creating a larger range between low flows and high flows. In addition, statistical tests were conducted to identify the main factors that affected variations in future climate projections. The choice of the downscaling method emerged as the main source of uncertainty. This research quantifies the impacts of climate change as well as uncertainties within climate change projections for regional water resources. Considering the essential role of this watershed for water supply in northern Virginia, the findings of this study illustrate likely impacts of climate change on water supply reliability, supporting climate resiliency in the study area.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by Australian Water Quality Centre (SA Water) and Occoquan Watershed Monitoring Laboratory (OWML) for this study. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessarily of the funding bodies. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, DC, 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 12 • December 2019
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Sep 30, 2018
Accepted: Jul 31, 2019
Published online: Sep 28, 2019
Published in print: Dec 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Feb 28, 2020
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