Evaluation of Flood Timing and Regularity over Hydrological Regionalization in Southern Brazil
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 8
Abstract
Extreme floods are often devastating, directly affecting millions of people worldwide. Because of the lack of infrastructure and proper hydrological monitoring, flood-related hazards in developing countries are magnified. Therefore, regionalization approaches associated with flood indices stand out for allowing reliable design flood estimates and enabling the identification of their driving mechanisms. In this context, the present study aims to evaluate flood timing and regularity using directional statistics for hydrological regionalization. A robust methodological framework was proposed combining fuzzy logic algorithms and the seasonality index, considering maximum annual streamflow data for Southern Brazil. It was found that major floods take place between midwinter and early spring with no well-defined spatial pattern; however, a significant decrease in their regularity was observed westward. Based on these characteristics, two clustering scenarios were proposed. According to the heterogeneity measure, hydrologically homogeneous regions were formed for the entire study area, except for the mountainous region in the northeast. Four main flood-driving mechanisms were identified: frontal systems, maritime air masses, consecutive rainfall days, and antecedent soil moisture.
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Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for scholarships to the second (308645/2017-0) and third (301556/2017-2) authors and for a research grant to the second author (485279/2013-4), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS) for research grants (2082-2551/13-0; 16/2551-0000 247-9) to the second author, and the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) for a research grant (PPM VIII 071/2014) to the third author. The data used in the present study may be found at the HidroWeb platform available at the National Water Agency of Brazil website.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 8 • August 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 23, 2018
Accepted: Mar 14, 2019
Published online: Jun 11, 2019
Published in print: Aug 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Nov 11, 2019
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