Consistency of Extreme Flood Estimation Approaches
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 7
Abstract
Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used to plan infrastructure and to determine the dimensions of flood protection measures. Several well-established methods exist for estimating low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve because the “true value” of an extreme flood is not observable. A detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In the present study, the following three methods of estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical method (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical method based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic method (physically based estimation of the probable maximum flood, PMF). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments; the results show that the 10,000-year return level flood estimations exceed the PMF estimations by 3% and 18%. The analysis shows that the plausibility of an extreme flood estimation does not only depend on the applied method but also on its ability to represent flood-triggering processes, including precipitation input, spatio-temporal precipitation distribution, and runoff.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank EDF for providing the SCHADEX tools and for granting support for the tools’ application. Data were provided by the Swiss Federal Office of Environment, FOEN; the Swiss Federal Office for Topography, swisstopo; and the Swiss Federal Office for Climatology and Meteorology, MeteoSwiss. This study was funded by the Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 7 • July 2019
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jul 20, 2017
Accepted: Jan 18, 2019
Published online: Apr 25, 2019
Published in print: Jul 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Sep 25, 2019
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