Statistical Analysis of Discharge Fluctuations in a Semiarid Basin Using Effective Atmospheric Teleconnections: Dez River Basin in Iran
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 7
Abstract
This paper investigated the variability of freshwater discharge () in the Dez River Basin in Iran and its possible links to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Nonparametric statistical tests were applied to analyze fluctuations of discharge and teleconnection indexes. The results indicated statistically significant monotonic decreases of the discharge and peak flow (-value ) across most of the subbasins. Furthermore, a downward step change was detected in discharge time series around the mid-1990s from 14.7% to 43.3% with respect to long-term values. Similarly, almost concurrent shifts detected in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) (from to in 1998) and the NAO (from to in 1995) that suggest changing conditions toward more cold phases of ENSO and negative phases of NAO coincided with discharge and monthly peak flow depletion. Comparing the amount of discharges during different phases showed that and . Furthermore, the Mann-Whitney U test verified statistically significant differences (-value ) between flows pertaining to different phases of both ENSO and NAO. Correlations between discharge and teleconnection indexes indicated that discharge is apparently affected by teleconnections considering the lag time.
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Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction for providing historical data of the ENSO and NAO indexes and the Iran Water Resources Management Company for providing long-term discharge data sets used in this work.
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: May 18, 2016
Accepted: Nov 16, 2018
Published online: Apr 19, 2019
Published in print: Jul 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Sep 19, 2019
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