Abstract
The effects of climate change are increasingly considered in conjunction with changes in water demand and reservoir sedimentation in forecasts of water supply vulnerability. Here, the relative effects of these factors are evaluated for the Washington, DC metropolitan area water supply for the near (2010–2039), intermediate (2040–2069), and distant (2070–2099) future by repeated water resources model simulations. This system poses water management challenges because of long water-delivery travel times that increase uncertainty, multiple water jurisdictions that constrain potential decisions, and future scenarios that simultaneously increase demand and decrease water supply during the critical summer period. Adaptation strategies were developed for the system using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. Optimized reservoir management policies were compared using six distinct objectives ranging from reservoir storage to environmental and recreational benefits. Simulations of future conditions show water stress increasing with time. Reservoir sedimentation is projected to more than double (114% increase) the severity of reservoir storage failures by 2040. Increases in water demand and climate change are projected to further stress the system, causing longer periods of low flow and a loss of recreational reservoir storage. The adoption of optimized rules mitigates some of these effects, most notably returning simulations of 2070–2099 climate to near historical levels. Modifying the balance between upstream and downstream reservoirs improved storage penalties by 20.7% and flowby penalties by 50%. Changing triggers for shifting load to off-line reservoirs improved flowby (8.3%) and environmental (4.1%) penalties slightly, whereas changing demand restriction triggers provided only moderate improvements, but with few adverse effects.
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Acknowledgments
This study was conducted while James Stagge was a Via Doctoral Fellow in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Virginia Tech. He gratefully acknowledges support from the Via program and the Institute for Critical Technology and Applied Science (ICTAS) at Virginia Tech. The authors would also like to thank the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) and Hydrologics, Inc. for providing data access and research support. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments regarding this paper.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22 • Issue 11 • November 2017
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©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 8, 2017
Accepted: May 10, 2017
Published online: Sep 13, 2017
Published in print: Nov 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Feb 13, 2018
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