Impacts of Climate Change on Low Flows at Tang Panj Sezar Subbasin, Southwest of Iran
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22, Issue 11
Abstract
Any change in characteristics of low flows under climate change may have important effects on various socioeconomic, environmental, water resource, and governmental planning aspects. The aim of this research was to use various low-flow indices to investigate low flows for a future period (2015–2044) under the effects of climate change for the case of Sezar basin, southwestern Iran. In this research, outputs of 10 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) under an A2 emissions scenario were used to predict temperature and precipitation scenarios under climate change. The low-flow indices used in this study included those extracted from a flow duration curve (discharges exceeded 70, 90, and 95% of the time, i.e., , , and ), indices of low-flow frequency analysis (annual minimum 7-day flow with 2, 10, 20, and 100 return periods, i.e., , , , and ), and flow deficit characteristics (number of dry days in a year, maximum length of dry period, deficit volume, and deficit intensity). The results indicated that the status of low flow in the future will be better than the baseline (1971–2000) in all subbasins, so values of indices including , , and as well as , , , and will increase and values of indices of deficit volume and intensity will decrease. The results also showed consistency between the indices derived from the flow duration curve and deficit characteristics, whereas indices of frequency analysis were determined to be inherently different.
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Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the Khuzestan Water and Power Authority, the Iran Meteorological Organization, and the Tehran Water Resources Management Company for providing the meteorological and hydrological data of the case study. Also, we thank Dr. Shahram Yoosefi Khanghah, Mojtaba Mokari, and Mohammad Sadegh Shahid Zade for their valuable comments.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22 • Issue 11 • November 2017
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©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Apr 11, 2016
Accepted: May 9, 2017
Published online: Aug 29, 2017
Published in print: Nov 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Jan 29, 2018
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