Prevalence and Magnitude of Trends in Peak Annual Flow and 5-, 10-, and 20-Year Flows in the Northeastern United States
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22, Issue 3
Abstract
This study assessed trends in flows of return periods of 5, 10, and 20 years and in the peak annual flow (PAF). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream-gauging stations in the northeastern United States () were analyzed, including 34 gauges in the USGS’s Hydroclimatic Data Network 2009 (HCDN), which are mostly unaffected by land-use change. For each gauge, flood flows were determined for a series of sequential blocks, each 10 years long. Approximately 26% of HCDN gauges and approximately 17% of non-HCDN gauges showed a statistically significant () increasing trend for at least one return period on the basis of the Mann-Kendall test; no gauge showed a decreasing trend. The percentage of gauges with increasing trends was approximately the same, regardless of return period. Regarding magnitude of these statistically significant trends assessed via Sen slope, the average rate of increase for gauges was per year, again regardless of return period, which is larger than the average rate for PAF (0.9%). Rates were approximately equal for HCDN and non-HCDN gauges. The difference in trend magnitude between PAF and flood flows indicates that a study of trends in PAF may not produce results that correspond to flows of higher return periods.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Josh Galster, Mr. Eric Slaff, Mr. James Curra, Mr. Joshua Perez-Terrero, Ms. Danielle Rogers, Ms. Maame Boakye, Mr. Taymar Walters, Dr. Seth Xeflide, and Dr. Faith Justus who conducted some preliminary flood-frequency analyses. This material is on the basis of work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1203210. The work also was supported by a grant from the Mahony Foundation through Manhattan College.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22 • Issue 3 • March 2017
Copyright
©2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 3, 2016
Accepted: Aug 3, 2016
Published online: Oct 12, 2016
Published in print: Mar 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Mar 12, 2017
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