Sensitivity of Flood-Depth Frequency to Watershed-Runoff Change and Sea-Level Rise Using a One-Dimensional Hydraulic Model
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 8
Abstract
Climate change and sea-level rise are expected to alter the likelihood of extreme events, such as floods, within the design lifetime of infrastructure components. Critical civil infrastructure facilities, including wastewater treatment, transportation, and energy, need site-specific flood contingency plans that reflect the effects of changing climate. This study developed a sensitivity analysis method to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and streamflow response to increased precipitation intensity. The method was applied to an ungauged location on a tidal estuary in the Mid-Atlantic region as a case study. One-dimensional (1D) unsteady flow analysis using a hydraulic analysis software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was used to predict discharge and water surface elevation along the estuary reach, subject to prescribed boundary conditions of upstream discharge and downstream water surface elevation. A current-climate flood-depth frequency curve was estimated for the study site based on simulations of high-flow events in the 18 years for which simultaneous upstream and downstream records were available. The simulations were repeated, applying additive water surface elevation (WSEL) perturbations at the downstream boundary (to represent anticipated sea-level rise) and multiplicative event discharge perturbations at the upstream boundary (to represent anticipated change in watershed hydrology). The perturbations were applied separately and together. Revised flood-depth frequency curves were calculated for each set of perturbations. For this location, the 1% annual exceedance (100-year) WSEL is 1.18 m (3.9 ft) higher, and the 0.2% annual exceedance (500-year) WSEL is 1 m (3.3 ft) higher, than current climate in the worst-case scenario, 1.22 m (4 ft) of sea-level rise and a 30% increase in event discharge. For that scenario, the current 1% exceedance (100-year) WSEL has a 67% probability of exceedance (1.5 year). The results indicate that the effects of the upstream and downstream changes are not additive. This research will help infrastructure stakeholders be aware of the flood risk and vulnerability while environmental changes are underway.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by District of Columbia Water and Sewer Authority (DC Water), through Grant No. 120809. The authors thank H.S. Mashriqui, J. S. Halgren, and S. M. Reed (NOAA, Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center) for sharing their Potomac HEC-RAS model, and R.H. McCuen (University of Maryland) for advice and guidance. The authors also thank M. Ramirez, K. Salil, L. Bastian, and A. Tesfaye (DC Water) for their insights on plant infrastructure planning.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 5, 2015
Accepted: Jan 7, 2016
Published online: Apr 4, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 4, 2016
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