Vulnerability of Water Demand and Aquatic Habitat in the Context of Climate Change and Analysis of a No-Regrets Adaptation Strategy: Study of the Yamaska River Basin, Canada
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 2
Abstract
Climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle. This paper presents the results of a pilot project for the Yamaska River in Québec. The objective of this project is to evaluate the river’s vulnerability to low flows attributable to climate change and to analyze a no-regrets adaptation strategy at locations identified as vulnerable. The vulnerability was evaluated using statistical indicators (low flow indices) based on long-term observations at four locations in the basin. A distributed physically-based hydrological model in use in Québec was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data to properly represent low flows. Hydrological simulations used seven climate projections provided by the north american regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP) s project. Also, five members of the canadian regional climate model (CRCM), nested with the coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario, were run for a reference (1971–2000) period and a future (2041–2070) period. Streamflow simulations indicate a degradation of future low flow conditions, particularly in June and August, when compared to the reference period. In addition, the 7-day low flow value with a 2-year return period (7Q2) and the 7-day low flow value with a 10-year return period (7Q10) decrease by 16–64% and 18–45% respectively. A no-regrets adaptation strategy allowing stakeholders to reduce withdrawal according to alert levels was implemented. Simulations of the application of the no-regrets adaptation strategy reduced the number of days where streamflows are below the Crisis level in the future period by at least 20%.
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Acknowledgments
Funds receive from the 2006–2012 Climate Change Action Plan of Québec and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors wish to thank the NARCCAP for providing the data used in this paper. The NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the DOE, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the EPA.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 2 • February 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 14, 2014
Accepted: Jul 28, 2015
Published online: Oct 8, 2015
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Mar 8, 2016
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