Trends and Anomalies in Extreme Climate Indices and Influence of El Niño and La Niña over Pranhita Catchment in Godavari Basin, India
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 2
Abstract
Hydrologic design and planning requires dealing with extremes in precipitation and temperature events caused due to climate change. Long-term trends and variability in 20 extreme climate indices (ECIs) and the influence of El Niño and La Niña over the Pranhita catchment, India are studied for the period of 1951–2013. An overall increase in daily precipitation, more intense rain, and an increase in continuous dry days are observed; however, total rain shows a negative trend. A warming trend is observed with an increase in dry days, warm days, and hot nights, and a decrease in the frequency of cool days and nights. Observed trends for maximum and minimum temperatures are 0.7 and 0.8°C, respectively. El Niño years resulted in anomaly and anomaly was observed during La Niña years for the majority of ECIs. The association between ENSO and yearly temperature indices is found to be weak in comparison with precipitation indices. The study confirmed the multimodal nature of precipitation during El Niño, high precipitation during La Niña, and excess postmonsoon rains during La Niña. A comparison between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and the precipitation anomaly showed that the anomaly changes with a phase change in ENSO with the relation being very prominent during El Niño. The El Niño years have resulted in a precipitation deficit, and the La Niña years have resulted in excess precipitation.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The first author wishes to acknowledge the encouragement and guidance provided by the Director, NRSC, Deputy Director, ECSA/NRSC, and Group Director, ACSG/ECSA/NRSC Hyderabad. Without their support, it would not have been possible to complete the work.
References
Alexander, L. V., et al. (2006). “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.” J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109.
Andreoli, R. V., and Kayano, M. T. (2005). “ENSO related rainfall anomalies in South America and associated circulation features during warm and cold Pacific decadal oscillation regimes.” Int. J. Climatol., 25(15), 2017–2030.
Arblaster, J. M., and Alexander, L. V. (2012). “The impact of the El Niño-southern oscillation on maximum temperature extremes.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20702.
Bothale, R. and Katpatal, Y. (2014). “Response of rainfall and vegetation to ENSO events during 2001–2011 in Upper Wardha Watershed, Maharashtra, India.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 583–592.
Donat, M. G., et al. (2014). “Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: Long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO.” Int. J. Climatol., 34(3), 581–592.
Gadgil, S., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Francis, P. A. (2004). “Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 31(12), 31.
Guhathakurta, P., Sreejith, O. P., and Menon, P. A. (2011). “Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India.” J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120(3), 359–373.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2014). “Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.” Geneva, 151.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E. (2008). “Hole-filled SRTM for the globe, version 4, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90 m database.” 〈http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org〉 (Oct. 2014).
Kothawale, D. R. (2004). “Surface and upper air-temperature variability over India: Its influence on the summer monsoon rainfall.” Ph.D. thesis, Univ. of Pune, Maharashtra, India, 180.
Kothawale, D. R., and Rupa Kumar, K. (2005). “On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(18), 28.
Manton, M. J., et al. (2001). “Trend in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and south Pacific: 1961–1998.” Int. J. Clim., 21(3), 269–284.
Parmesan, C., Root, T. L., and Willig, M. R. (2000). “Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81(3), 443–450.
Peterson, T. C., et al. (2001). “Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001.”, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, 143.
Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., Kale, J. D. and Lal, B. (2005). “Development of a high resolution daily gridded data for the Indian region.”, Indian Meteorology Dept., Government of India, Pune, India.
Rao, K. K., Patwardhan, S. K., Kulkarni, A., Kamala, K., Sabade, S. S. and Kumar, K. K. (2014). “Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation indices over India using PRECIS.” Global Planet. Change, 113, 77–90.
Revadekar, J. V., Kothawale, D. R. and Rupa Kumar, K. (2009). “Role of El Niño/La Niña in temperature extremes over India.” Int. J. Climatol., 29(14), 2121–2129.
Roy, S. S., and Balling, J. R. (2004). “Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India.” Int. J. Climatol., 24(4), 457–466.
Rupa Kumar, K. (2006). “High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century.” Curr. Sci., 90, 334–345.
Sheikh, M. M., Ahmed, A., Revadekar, J. V., Shreshta, M. L. and Premalal, K. H. M. S. (2008). “Development and application of climate extreme indices and indicators for monitoring trends in climate extremes and their socio-economic impacts in South Asian countries.”, Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research.
Syafrina, A. H., Zalina, M. D., and Juneng, L. (2014). “Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.” Theor. Appl. Climatol., 120(1–2), 259–285.
Zhang, X., and Yang, F. (2004). “RClimDex (1.0) user guide.” Climate Research Branch, Environment Canada, Downsview, ON, Canada.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 2 • February 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 30, 2014
Accepted: Jun 26, 2015
Published online: Sep 7, 2015
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Feb 7, 2016
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.