Reservoir Flood Season Segmentation and Optimal Operation of Flood-Limiting Water Levels
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Volume 20, Issue 9
Abstract
A flood season segmentation-based reservoir optimal operation framework was proposed to maximize the use of the flood control storage in flood seasons. The proposed framework consists of an ensemble-method approach to segment the flood season for improved reservoir operation, a stochastic simulation model to generate abundant inflow hydrographs, and a Monte Carlo technique to calculate the failure probabilities of flood regulation under different given flood-limiting water levels (FLWLs). The benefits of the proposed framework were illustrated through the operation of Chengbihe Reservoir in China. Results indicate that an ensemble-method approach of a fuzzy clustering method, a probability change-point analysis, and a statistical graphical technique provide more reasonable segmentations than that of an individual method alone. The flood season of the Chengbihe Reservoir is segmented into an early flood season (April 1–May 31), a main flood season (June 1–August 20), and a late flood season (August 21–October 31). The FLWL in the main flood season remains to be the value currently in use (185.00 m), whereas the FLWL in the late flood season can be lifted maximally up to 188.50 m, which is equivalent to an increase of the active storage by (a shrinkage of 66.7% of the original designed flood control storage volume) without lowering the designed flood control standard.
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Acknowledgments
Professor Li Chen has taken great time and energy to help improve and polish this article; many thanks to his unselfish contributions. The authors would also like to thank the associate editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which significantly improved the quality of this article. Thanks to the Baise Municipal Water Resources Bureau for providing the original data. This work was supported by the Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No. 20145027312); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41323001); the program of Dual Innovative Talents Plan and Innovative Research Team in Jiangsu Province; the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; and the Systematic Project of Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety (Grant No. 2014ZDX01).
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20 • Issue 9 • September 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 16, 2014
Accepted: Nov 17, 2014
Published online: Dec 22, 2014
Discussion open until: May 22, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015
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