Multivariate Coupling Sensitivity Analysis Method Based on a Back-Propagation Network and Its Application
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20, Issue 8
Abstract
Sensitivity analysis is a technique for quantitatively analyzing the variation in a dependent variable caused by each independent variable. In this study, a global sensitivity analysis method is proposed that is suitable and effective for multivariable and nonlinear systems. Specifically, sensitivity is defined before nonlinear multipolynomial expansion is conducted according to the Taylor midvalue theorem to intuitively determine nonlinear relationships between the rate of change in the dependent variable and each independent variable. A back-propagation network is also used to determine these relationships. The detailed computational steps and methods for evaluating the results are provided. The proposed method was tested using computer simulation and with an actual hydrological engineering problem. Computer simulations aided the design of experimental plans directed at linear and nonlinear polynomials. The experimental results showed that sensitivity analysis of dependent variables and each independent variable depends on two main characteristics: (1) the relation mapped between dependent variables and each independent variable, and (2) the value of each independent variable. The randomness of the sample, the structure of the back-propagation network, and the parameters did not significantly affect the final sensitivity calculation results. Analysis of the hydrological engineering problem showed that, given antecedent runoff and precipitation, the main factor that affected runoff in the Nenjiang River basin during flood season was antecedent precipitation whereas antecedent runoff was the main factor in the nonflood season. These results were reasonable and consistent with hydrological laws. Based on theoretical experiments and an actual engineering example, this preliminary study demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of this method of global sensitivity analysis in addressing complex problems.
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Acknowledgments
The authors express their thanks to Professor Wang Hong-rui of the Water Science Institute, Beijing Normal University, for his pertinent suggestions. They are grateful to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51379088 and 51309155), the Science and Technology Department Key Technology Support Program of Jilin Province (No. 20130206088SF), and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (No. 2013M530027) for providing financial support for this research.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20 • Issue 8 • August 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 7, 2013
Accepted: Oct 21, 2014
Published online: Nov 19, 2014
Discussion open until: Apr 19, 2015
Published in print: Aug 1, 2015
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