Hydrologic Drought Atlas for Texas
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20, Issue 7
Abstract
This paper presents a hydrologic drought atlas for the state of Texas. The atlas depicts the spatial variation of drought severity for durations of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months corresponding to the return periods of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Using the variable infiltration capacity model which is a large-scale land surface model, drought characteristics were derived from monthly stream flow simulated at resolution over the state of Texas. Appropriate marginal distributions of drought severity and duration were selected from amongst exponential, gamma, log-normal, and Weibull distributions, whereas the joint distribution of severity and duration was selected from the Archimedean, extreme value, Plackett, and elliptical families. Then, severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves were obtained which were used for preparing the drought atlas that depicts the drought severity for any drought duration and return period at any location in Texas. Results indicate a decreasing pattern of severities from west to east. Humid and semihumid regions show a concave pattern in the SDF curves, whereas arid and semiarid regions show a convex pattern. The nonparametric Mann Kendall test was used to analyze the long-term drought trend that indicated a downward trend in arid and continental regions and an upward trend along the Gulf Coast, humid, and semihumid regions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This paper has been supported by the USGS Project Grant No. 2009TX334 G. A heartfelt thanks also goes to Dr. Li Chao who helped with some coding required for the analysis.
References
Abdulla, F. A., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Smith, J. A. (1996). “Application of a macroscale hydrologic model to estimate the water balance of the Arkansas-Red River basin.” J. Geophys. Res., 101(D3), 7449–7459.
Andreadis, K., Wood, C. E., Wood, A., Hamlet, A., and Lettenmaier, D. (2005). “Twentieth century drought in conterminous United States.” J. HydroMeteor., 6(6), 985–1001.
Andreadis, K. M., and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2006). “Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(10), L10403.
ArcGIS 10 [Computer software]. Redlands, CA, Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI).
Bonaccorso, B., Cancelliere, A., and Rossi, G. (2003). “An analytical formulation of return period of drought severity.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 17(3), 157–174.
Brown, B. G., Katz, R. W., and Murphy, A. H. (1984). “Time series models to simulate and forecast wind speed and wind power.” J. Clim. Appl. Meterol., 23(8), 1184–1195.
Bureau of Economic Geology. (1996). River basin map of Texas, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX.
Cancelliere, A., and Salas, J. D. (2004). “Drought length properties for periodic-stochastic hydrological data.” Water Resour. Res., 40(2), W02503.
Cook, E. R., and Krusik, P. J. (2004). “The North American drought atlas.” 〈http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.LDEO/.TRL/.NADA2004/.pdsi-atlas.html〉 (Jul. 31, 2014).
Dalezios, N. R., Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., and Liakopoulos, E. (2000). “Severity-duration-frequency analysis of droughts and wet periods in Greece.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 45(5), 751–769.
Guerrero-Salazar, P., and Yevjevich, V. (1975). “Analysis of drought characteristics by the theory of runs.”, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.
Hansen, M. C., DeFries, R. S., Townshend, J. R. G., and Sohlberg, R. (2000). “Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach.” Int. J. Remote Sens., 21(6–7), 1331–1364.
Hydrological drought: Processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. (2004). L. M. Tallaksen and H. A. Van Lanen, eds., Vol. 48, Elsevier, New York.
Joe, H. (1997). Multivariate models and dependence concepts, Chapman and Hall, New York.
Kao, S. C., and Govindaraju, R. S. (2010). “A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts.” J. Hydrol., 380(1–2), 121–134.
Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods, Griffin, London.
Keyantash, J., and Dracup, J. A. (2002). “The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83(8), 1167–1180.
Krause, P., Boyle, D. P., and Bäse, F. (2005). “Comparison of different efficiency criterion for hydrological model assessment.” Adv. Geosci., 5(5), 89–97.
Kroll, C. N., and Vogel, R. M. (2002). “Probability distribution of low streamflow series in the United States.” J. Hydrol., 137–146.
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J. (1994). “A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs.” J. Geophys. Res., 99(D7), 14415–14428.
Lins, H. F. (2012). “A note on stationarity and nonstationarity.” 14th Session of the Commission for Hydrology, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lins, H. F., and Cohn, T. A. (2011). “Stationarity: Wanted dead or alive?” J. Am. Water Res. Assoc., 47(3), 475–480.
Lohmann, D., Nolte-Holube, R., and Raschke, E. (1996). “A large-scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes.” Tellus, 48(5), 708–721.
Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P. (1998). “Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2 L model coupled to a routing model.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 43(1), 131–141.
Mann, H. B. (1945). “Nonparametric tests against trend.” Econometrica, 13(3), 245–259.
Maurer, E. P., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2000). “Use of reanalysis land surface water budget variables in hydrologic studies.” GEWEX News, 10(4), 6–8.
Maurer, E. P., Wood, A. W., Adam, J. C., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Nijssen, B. (2002). “A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States.” J. Clim., 15(22), 3237–3251.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J. (1993). “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.” Proc., 8th Conf. Applied Climatology, 179–183.
McMahon, T. A., Pegram, G. G. S., and Vogel, R. M. (2007). “Revisiting reservoir storage yield relationships using a global streamflow database.” Adv. Water Resour., 30(8), 1858–1872.
Millan, J., and Yevjevich, V. (1971). “Probabilities of observed droughts.”, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.
Miller, D. A., and White, R. A. (1998). “A conterminous United States multilayer soil characteristics dataset for regional climate and hydrology modeling.” Earth Interactions, 2(2), 1–26.
Mishra, A. K., and Singh, V. P. (2009). “Analysis of drought severity-area-frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty.” J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06120.
Mishra, A. K., and Singh, V. P. (2010). “A review of drought concepts.” J. Hydrol., 391(1), 202–216.
Mishra, A. K., Singh, V. P., and Desai, V. R. (2009). “Drought characterization: A probabilistic approach.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 23(1), 41–55.
Modarres, R. (2007). “Streamflow drought time series forecasting.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 21(3), 223–233.
Myneni, R. B., Nemani, R. R., and Running, S. W. (1997). “Estimation of global leaf area index and absorbed PAR using radiative transfer models.” IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 35(6), 1380–1393.
Nalbantis, L., and Tsakiris, G. (2009). “Assessment of hydrologic drought revisited.” Water Resour. Manage., 23(5), 881–897.
Nijssen, B. N., Lettenmaier, D. P., Liang, X., Wetzel, S. W., and Wood, E. F. (1997). “Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins.” Water Resour. Res., 33(4), 711–724.
Nijssen, B. N., O’Donnell, G. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Wood, E. F. (2001). “Predicting the discharge of global rivers.” J. Clim., 14(15), 3307–3323.
Norwine, J., Giardino, J. R., North, G., and Valdés, J. B. (1995). The changing climate of Texas: Predictability and implications for the future, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX.
Rajsekhar, D., Mishra, A. K., and Singh, V. P. (2013). “Regionalization of drought characteristics using an entropy approach.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 870–887.
Rawls, W. J., Ahuja, L. R., Brakensiek, D. L., and Shirmohammadi, A. (1992). “Infiltration and soil water movement.” Handbook of hydrology, D. R. Maidment, ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, 5.1–5.51.
Rivers of North America. (2005). A. C. Benke and C. E. Cushing, eds., Elsevier, Burlington, MA.
Saghafian, B., Shokoohi, A., and Raziei, T. (2003). “Drought spatial analysis and development of severity-duration-frequency curves for an arid region.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Hydrology of the Mediterranean and Semiarid Regions, Vol. 278, 305–311.
Salas, J. D., et al. (2005). “Characterizing the severity and risk of drought in the Poudre River, Colorado.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 383–393.
Salathe, E. P. (2003). “Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of stream flow in a rain shadow river basin.” Int. J. Clim., 23(8), 887–901.
Santos, J. F., Calvo, I. P., and Portela, M. M. (2010). “Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal.” Water Resour. Res., 46(3), 1–13.
Sheffield, J., Goteti, G., Wen, F., and Wood, E. F. (2004). “A simulated soil moisture based drought analysis for the United States.” J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24108.
Sheffield, J., and Wood, E. F. (2008). “Global trends and variability in soil moisture and drought characteristics, 1950–2000, from observation-driven simulations of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle.” J. Clim., 21(3), 432–458.
Shiau, J. (2006). “Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas.” Water Resour. Manage., 20(5), 795–815.
Shiau, J. T., Feng, S., and Nadarajah, S. (2007). “Assessment of hydrological droughts for the Yellow River, China, using copulas.” Hydrol. Processes, 21(16), 2157–2163.
Shiau, J. T., and Modarres, R. (2009). “Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran.” Meteorol. Appl., 16(4), 481–489.
Shiau, J. T., and Shen, H. W. (2001). “Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 30–40.
Shukla, S., and Wood, A. W. (2008). “Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(2), L02405.
Sklar, A. (1959). Distribution functions of n dimensions and their margins, Vol. 8, Publications de l’Institut de Statistique de l’Univ. de Paris, 229–231.
Song, S., and Singh, V. P. (2010a). “Frequency analysis of droughts using the Plackett copula and parameter estimation by genetic algorithm.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 24(5), 783–805.
Song, S., and Singh, V. P. (2010b). “Meta-elliptical copulas for drought frequency analysis of periodic hydrologic data.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 24(3), 425–444.
Suveges, M. (2008). “Nonstationarity of the summer extreme temperatures in Neuchatel during 1901–2006.” Proc., Workshop on Extremes in a Changing Climate, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands.
Tallaksen, L. M., Madsen, H., and Clausen, B. (1997). “On the definition and modeling of stream drought duration and deficit volume.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 42(1), 15–33.
Villarini, G., Serinaldi, F., Smith, J. A., and Krajewski, W. F. (2009). “On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century.” Water Resour. Res., 45(8), 1–17.
Werick, W. J., Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N. B., Hosking, J. R. M., and Wallis, J. R. (1994). “National drought atlas.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 75(8), 89–90.
Zelenhastic, E., and Salvai, A. (1987). “A method of stream flow drought analysis.” Water Resour. Res., 23(1), 156–168.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20 • Issue 7 • July 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 24, 2013
Accepted: Jul 22, 2014
Published online: Aug 27, 2014
Discussion open until: Jan 27, 2015
Published in print: Jul 1, 2015
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.