How Safe is Hydrologic Infrastructure Design? Analysis of Factors Affecting Extreme Flood Estimation
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 12
Abstract
This study evaluates the implicit safety level in hydrologic infrastructure design, performed in common practice with the calculation of the peak-flow frequency curve for high return periods () through use of single-peak hyetographs in a semidistributed hydro-meteorological event-based model. Through consideration of two basins located in mainland Spain, the paper studies the effect on the peak-flow frequency curve of (1) the shape of the design hyetograph defined by the alternating blocks (AB) method or through applying a Monte Carlo (MC) procedure; (2) the catchment area (ranging from 140 to ); and (3) the extent of disaggregation in the hydro-meteorological model (varying from 14 to 66 subbasins). The effect on hydrologic safety was measured through using the ratio , with QmaxAB, the peak flows obtained with the AB method and QmaxMC, the application of MC. The paper finds the following: (1) that the degree of safety decreases as the basin area increases, regardless of the extent of disaggregation in the model used; (2) a greater disaggregation in semidistributed hydrologic models leads to greater water safety, mainly for smaller basins (in this study, ); and (3) at the level of subbasin, the degree of safety decreases as the time of concentration and area increase.
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Acknowledgments
The study has been made possible through financial help received from the MODEX Project (CGL2011-22868), physically-based modeling for characterization of extreme hydrologic response under a probabilistic approach. Application to dam safety analysis and optimization of reservoir operation during floods, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and VIAGUA Action (410AC0399), funded by CYTED. Appreciation is also shown to María Dolores Bejarano for her comments and suggestions during the development and editing of the study, to Andrew Selby for his help with the English edition and to the National Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for the data provided.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 12 • December 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 1, 2013
Accepted: Feb 11, 2014
Published online: Feb 13, 2014
Published in print: Dec 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Dec 11, 2014
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