Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Using Different Climate Models and Downscaling Approaches
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 8
Abstract
The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resources management and flood risk mitigation. However, for small/medium catchments (), the spatial-temporal resolution of global circulation models (GCMs) output is not adequate () and downscaling procedures are required. In this paper, two different GCMs selected among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 models, the Hadley Center Coupled Model, the Parallel Climate Model, and two statistical downscaling approaches, (1) delta change, and (2) quantile mapping, are compared. For the generation of long hourly time series of rainfall, temperature, and discharge, stochastic weather generators coupled with a continuous rainfall-runoff model are employed. Therefore, the frequency of annual maxima rainfall and discharge is projected for the future period 2070–2099 over three small subcatchments in the Upper Tiber River Basin, central Italy. Results reveal that both the GCMs and downscaling methods play a significant role in the determination of the climate change impact for future scenarios, mainly in terms of annual maxima values. By comparing the future (2070–2099) with the baseline period (1961–1990), all GCMs project a decrease of mean annual rainfall () and an increase of mean annual temperature (). However, in terms of annual maxima (of rainfall and discharge) the results are found to be dependent on the selected GCM and downscaling method. On one hand, through the application of the delta change method, both GCMs project a decrease in the flood frequency curves. On the other hand, if the quantile mapping downscaling method is considered, the Hadley Center Coupled Model 3 projects a decrease in the frequency of annual maxima discharge; the opposite occurs for the Parallel Climate Model. The hydrological characteristics of the study catchments play an important role in the assessment of the climate change impacts. For that, the need to use ensemble GCM results and multiple downscaling methods is underlined.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to thank R. Rosi for technical assistance. They are also grateful to Umbria Region for providing most of the analyzed data. The writers are also grateful to the four anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. The writers want to make memory by this paper of the coauthor Dr. Florisa Melone, who passed away on October 28, 2012. The sole consolation is that the writers have had the honour and privilege of working with Dr. Malone, but even more the joy of Dr. Malone’s friendship.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 8 • August 2014
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 19, 2012
Accepted: Dec 16, 2013
Published online: Dec 18, 2013
Published in print: Aug 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Oct 20, 2014
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