Assessment of the Expected Runoff Change in Spain Using Climate Simulations
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 7
Abstract
An assessment has been conducted of the potential effect of climate change on runoff in Spain in the 21st century. Runoff depths were calculated with a precipitation runoff model that used as input downscaled global climate model (GCM) outputs. The spatial and temporal resolution of the calculations was and 1 month, respectively. The assessment consisted of comparing runoff values of the baseline period, 1961–1990, with those of three 21st century periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, all estimated with simulated temperature and precipitation time series. Twelve climate simulations (i.e., combinations of a GCM, a greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and a downscaling algorithm), and whose variability reflects the uncertainty over the future climate, were considered. Based on the results, a decline in runoff is to be expected throughout the country. With respect to the baseline period, and depending on the climate simulation considered, runoff depths are expected to change in the range of to in 2011–2040, to in 2041–2070, and 0 to in 2071–2100.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Water General Directorate of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment for supporting this study in the framework of the Entrusted Management Agreement for the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources in Spain, the Spanish Office for Climate Change (OECC) for its support throughout this study, and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for providing climate information and assistance.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 7 • July 2014
Pages: 1481 - 1490
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 11, 2013
Accepted: Oct 4, 2013
Published online: Oct 7, 2013
Discussion open until: Mar 7, 2014
Published in print: Jul 1, 2014
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