Revisiting the Concepts of Return Period and Risk for Nonstationary Hydrologic Extreme Events
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 3
Abstract
Current practice using probabilistic methods applied for designing hydraulic structures generally assume that extreme events are stationary. However, many studies in the past decades have shown that hydrological records exhibit some type of nonstationarity such as trends and shifts. Human intervention in river basins (e.g., urbanization), the effect of low-frequency climatic variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and climate change due to increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere have been suggested to be the leading causes of changes in the hydrologic cycle of river basins in addition to changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods and extreme sea levels. To tackle nonstationarity in hydrologic extremes, several approaches have been proposed in the literature such as frequency analysis, in which the parameters of a given model vary in accordance with time. The aim of this paper is to show that some basic concepts and methods used in designing flood-related hydraulic structures assuming a stationary world can be extended into a nonstationary framework. In particular, the concepts of return period and risk are formulated by extending the geometric distribution to allow for changing exceeding probabilities over time. Building on previous developments suggested in the statistical and climate change literature, the writers present a simple and unified framework to estimate the return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic events along with examples and applications so that it can be accessible to a broad audience in the field. The applications demonstrate that the return period and risk estimates for nonstationary situations can be quite different than those corresponding to stationary conditions. They also suggest that the nonstationary analysis can be helpful in making an appropriate assessment of the risk of a hydraulic structure during the planned project-life.
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Acknowledgments
The writers acknowledge P2C2, Multicentury Streamflow Records Derived from Watershed Modeling and Tree Ring Data, National Science Foundation (ATM-0823480). Furthermore, the writers thank Professors G. Villarini and R. M. Vogel for sharing their flood data in addition to their relevant comments and insights, and Dr. D. Cooley for his helpful suggestions. The writers acknowledge the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center for making available their hourly sea level data for the Key West and Adak tide gages. The writers also acknowledge the useful comments of the unknown reviewers and the efficient Editorial Board of the Journal.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 3 • March 2014
Pages: 554 - 568
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 3, 2012
Accepted: Mar 26, 2013
Published online: Apr 1, 2013
Discussion open until: Sep 1, 2013
Published in print: Mar 1, 2014
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