Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis with Historical Information Based on Copula
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 8
Abstract
Flood events consist of flood peaks and flood volumes that are mutually correlated and need to be described by multivariate analysis methods, of which the copula functions are most desirable. Until now, the multivariate flood frequency analysis methods based on copulas does not consider the historical floods or paleological information. This may underestimate or overestimate the flood quantiles or conditional probabilities corresponding to high return periods, especially when the length of gauged record data series is relatively short. In this paper, a modified inference functions for margins (MIFM) method is proposed and used to estimate the parameters of both marginal distribution and joint distribution with incorporation of historical information. The conditional probabilities of flood volumes given that the peak discharge exceeding various values were derived. The Three Gorges reservoir (TGR) in China was selected as a case study. The bivariate flood quantiles were obtained based on bivariate return period and compared with current univariate design values. It is shown that the proposed method provides an alternative way for multivariate frequency analysis with historical information.
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Acknowledgments
The study is financially supported by National Natural Science Fund of China (51190094, 51079100) and the National Key Technology R&D Program (2009BAC56B01). The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their comments that helped improve the quality of the paper.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18 • Issue 8 • August 2013
Pages: 1018 - 1030
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 26, 2011
Accepted: Jul 5, 2012
Published online: Aug 6, 2012
Discussion open until: Jan 6, 2013
Published in print: Aug 1, 2013
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