Generalized Additive Regression Models of Discharge and Mean Velocity Associated with Direct-Runoff Conditions in Texas: Utility of the U.S. Geological Survey Discharge Measurement Database
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 10
Abstract
A database containing more than 17,700 discharge values and ancillary hydraulic properties was assembled from summaries of discharge measurement records for 424 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gauging stations (stream gauges) in Texas. Each discharge exceeds the 90th-percentile daily mean streamflow as determined by period-of-record, stream-gauge-specific, flow-duration curves. Each discharge therefore is assumed to represent discharge measurement made during direct-runoff conditions. The hydraulic properties of each discharge measurement included concomitant cross-sectional flow area, water-surface top width, and reported mean velocity. Systematic and statewide investigation of these data in pursuit of regional models for the estimation of discharge and mean velocity has not been previously attempted. Generalized additive regression modeling is used to develop readily implemented procedures by end-users for estimation of discharge and mean velocity from select predictor variables at ungauged stream locations. The discharge model uses predictor variables of cross-sectional flow area, top width, stream location, mean annual precipitation, and a generalized terrain and climate index (OmegaEM) derived for a previous flood-frequency regionalization study. The mean velocity model uses predictor variables of discharge, top width, stream location, mean annual precipitation, and OmegaEM. The discharge model has an adjusted R-squared value of about 0.95 and a residual standard error (RSE) of about 0.22 base-10 logarithm (cubic meters per second); the mean velocity model has an adjusted R-squared value of about 0.67 and an RSE of about 0.063 fifth root (meters per second). Example applications and computations using both regression models are provided.
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Acknowledgments
The inspiration for this paper originated from discussions between G. H. Herrmann and W. H. Asquith in December 2008. The nexus was Herrmann’s question “What can the USGS discharge measurement database in Texas tell the analyst running or reviewing a hydraulic model about the expected value or distribution of mean velocity for design discharges that emanate from hydraulic models within natural channels or near bridge openings?” Exploratory analyses (circa 2009–2010) by Asquith and Herrmann were summarized in an unpublished white paper, which discussed the potential for regionalization of discharge measurement databases. The authors thank D. B. Thompson (R. O. Anderson) for constructive comments in an early draft of this paper. The authors thank M. C. Roussel (USGS) and R. M. Slade, Jr. (retired USGS Surface-Water Specialist in Texas) for providing thoughtful comments on early drafts of this paper. Last, the authors are grateful for the instructive anonymous peer reviews of this paper.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18 • Issue 10 • October 2013
Pages: 1331 - 1348
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 16, 2012
Accepted: Sep 13, 2012
Published online: Sep 16, 2013
Published in print: Oct 1, 2013
Discussion open until: Feb 16, 2014
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