Copula-Based Analysis of Hydrological Extremes and Implications of Hydrological Behaviors in the Pearl River Basin, China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 16, Issue 7
Abstract
It is believed that the currently increasing temperature, also known as global warming, has altered the hydrological cycle and thus the hydrometeorological extremes become frequent. In this study, the authors analyze hydrological extremes defined by 7-day high flow and low flow of the Pearl River Basin by using a copula family. The results indicate that the concurrent occurrence of extreme high and low flow is of small probability. It implies that the probability is small that the lower Pearl River Basin is attacked by heavy droughts or floods because of the combined effects of high or low flow of the two major tributaries of the Pearl River, i.e., the West and North Rivers. Therefore, the authors can conclude that the joint probability of hydrological extremes of two tributaries of a river basin could be small, albeit the occurrence of hydrological extremes of an individual river is of large probability. Besides, the results of this study also reveal increasing 7-day low flow in winter, which should be because of seasonal shifts of precipitation on the basis of the previous studies. The results of this study mean much for the sound human understanding of statistical behaviors of hydrological extremes in humid regions, and also for effective water resource management and development of human mitigation to the natural hazards in the changing environment.
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Acknowledgments
The research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. NNSFC41071020), the Project from Guangdong Science and Technology Department (Grant No. NNSFC2010B050800001), the Program for Outstanding Young Teachers of the Sun Yat-sen University (Grant No. NNSFC2009-37000-1132381), the Key National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. NNSFC50839005), a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. UNSPECIFIEDCUHK405308) and a Direct Grant from the Faculty of Social Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong (Project No. UNSPECIFIED2021022). Cordial gratitude should be extended to editor-in-chief, Prof. Dr. V.P. Singh, associate editor, and anonymous reviewers for their pertinent and professional comments, which greatly helped to improve the quality of this manuscript.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 16 • Issue 7 • July 2011
Pages: 598 - 607
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 21, 2010
Accepted: Oct 28, 2010
Published online: Jun 15, 2011
Published in print: Jul 1, 2011
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