Flood Forecasting in Regulated Basins Using the Ensemble Extended Kalman Filter with the Storage Function Method
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 15, Issue 12
Abstract
An ensemble extended Kalman filter (EEKF) formulation is applied to a regulated basin. The existing event-based storage function method for the prediction of flow is enhanced to incorporate continuous soil water accounting and to be suitable for application in large watersheds with several tributaries. The formulation is complemented by EEKF, which utilizes flow and reservoir level observations to update catchment soil water and channel states, and reservoir storage estimates predicted by the model. The formulated forecast is suitable for operational application. Ensemble precipitation predictions are generated to serve as input to the forecast system, and the results are intercompared using two different statistical approaches. These predictions together with parametric uncertainty models constitute the basis of the ensemble flow predictions by the model. A case study is presented that demonstrates the implementation and evaluation of the method with respect to the prediction of large flow events in a regulated basin, a tributary to Nakdong River in Korea, using hourly data for the period January 2006–August 2008. A significant finding is that although the calibrated-model simulations reproduce well the observations, without the updating procedure, it forecasted poorly the high-flow events. The EEKF-based forecast system improves the forecast of the high-flow events with respect to time and magnitude and yields higher scores for the probability of detection and false alarm rate associated with the exceedance of high-flow thresholds.
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Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper was sponsored by the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Water Resources Research Institute of Sejong University in Seoul, Korea. Additional support was provided by the Technology Transfer Program of the Hydrologic Research Center in San Diego, Calif.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
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Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 15 • Issue 12 • December 2010
Pages: 1030 - 1044
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Jun 29, 2009
Accepted: May 15, 2010
Published online: Nov 15, 2010
Published in print: Dec 2010
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