Epistemic Uncertainty Treatment in Seismically Induced Slope Displacements Using Polynomial Chaos
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 146, Issue 10
Abstract
Performance-based probabilistic approaches (PBPAs) for estimating seismically-induced slope displacements () provide hazard-consistent estimates through the evaluation of hazard curves (DHCs), and hence, its use in practice is appealing. Importantly, the epistemic uncertainty to develop a DHC needs to be considered, which is typically done using a logic tree approach with discrete branches for the system properties and seismic displacement models (SDM). However, the few existing SDMs, do not allow one to accurately capture the full epistemic uncertainty range. This study uses the polynomial chaos (PC) theory to develop a computationally efficient framework for propagating the epistemic uncertainty in the median , associated with alternative SDM models. PC expansions allow one to account for the epistemic uncertainty distribution in DHCs in a computationally efficient manner, which cannot be possible using the traditional logic tree approach. The necessary steps for the implementation of the proposed framework are discussed, and an illustrative example of its application in engineering practice is presented.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during this study are available from the corresponding author by request. Specific items include the codes used for the PC-based and Monte Carlo–based evaluations.
Acknowledgments
The first author acknowledges the financial support from the Civil Engineering Department at Georgia Tech, which made this study possible. The second author acknowledges the financial support from the University of California, Berkeley, where he develops his activities as a postdoctoral researcher.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 146 • Issue 10 • October 2020
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 5, 2019
Accepted: May 12, 2020
Published online: Aug 12, 2020
Published in print: Oct 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jan 12, 2021
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