Slope Reliability Analysis Considering Site-Specific Performance Information
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 137, Issue 3
Abstract
The performance of a slope, such as surviving a certain groundwater condition, can be viewed as the outcome of a full-scale test performed directly on the slope and may provide valuable information for safety assessment, upgrading analysis, and repair design of the slope. Performance information can be divided into two types: (1) the slope survived a certain state, and (2) the slope failed at a certain state. This paper illustrates two methods for slope reliability analysis considering site-specific performance information, i.e., an indirect method based on back-analysis of the performance information, and a direct method, in which the back-analysis procedure is bypassed. The two methods are theoretically the same but different in implementation details. As examples, an existing slope for safety assessment and a failed slope to be repaired are studied in this paper. Considering the past survival information increases the reliability of the slope. The increase in reliability is larger if the slope survives a more critical state. Thus, ignoring the survival information may result in uneconomical decisions. In contrast, ignoring the failure information may either underestimate or overestimate the reliability of a slope. As a result, neglecting the past failure information may lead to unsafe or uneconomical decisions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was substantially supported by the Kwang-hua Fund for College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University; the Program for Young Excellent Talents in Tongji University; and the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the Hong Kong SAR (Project Nos. UNSPECIFIED622308 and UNSPECIFIED622210).
References
Ang, A. H.-S., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design: Decision, risk, and reliability, Vol. 2, Wiley, New York.
Babu, G. L. S., and Murthy, D. S. (2005). “Reliability analysis of unsaturated soil slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 131(11), 1423–1428.
Bishop, A. W. (1955). “The use of the slip circle in the stability analysis of slopes.” Geotechnique, 5, 7–17.
Ching, J., Phoon, K. K., and Hu, Y. G. (2009). “Efficient evaluation of reliability for slopes with circular slip surfaces using importance sampling.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 135(6), 768–777.
Chowdhury, R., Zhang, S., and Flentje, P. (2004). “Reliability updating and geotechnical back-analysis.” Proc., Advances in Geotechnical Engineering: The Skempton Conf., R. J. Jardine, D. M. Potts, and K. G. Higgins, eds., Thomas Telford, London.
Christian, J. T., Ladd, C. C., and Baecher, G. B. (1994). “Reliability applied to slope stability analysis.” J. Geotech. Eng., 120(12), 2180–2207.
Crosta, G. (1998). “Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: An aid to landslide hazard evaluation.” Eng. Geol., 35(2-3), 131–145.
Dong, C. (2001). Theory and applications of modern structural system reliability, Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese).
Duncan, J. M. (1999). “The use of back analysis to reduce slope failure risk.” Civ. Eng. Pract., 14(1), 75–91.
El-Ramly, H., Morgenstern, N. R., and Cruden, D. M. (2002). “Probabilistic stability analysis of Lodalen slide.” Proc., 55th Canadian Geotech. Conf., Canadian Geotechnical Society, Richmond, Canada, 1053–1060.
El-Ramly, H., Morgenstern, N. R., and Cruden, D. M. (2005). “Probabilistic assessment of stability of a cut slope in residual soil.” Geotechnique, 55(1), 77–84.
Fellenius, W. (1936). “Calculation of the stability of earth dams.” Transactions of the 2nd Congress on Large Dams, Vol. 4, International Commission on Large Dams, Paris, 445–463.
Feng, Y. S. (1989). “A method for computing structural system reliability with high accuracy.” Comput. Struct., 33(1), 1–5.
Geotechnical Engineering Office (GEO). (1984). Geotechnical manual for slopes, Hong Kong
Gilbert, R. B., Wright, S. G., and Liedtke, E. (1998). “Uncertainty in back analysis of slopes: Kettleman Hills case history.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 124(12), 1167–1176.
Griffiths, D. V., Huang, J., and Fenton, G. A. (2009). “Influence of spatial variability on slope reliability using 2-D random fields.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 135(10), 1367–1378.
Hasofer, A. M., and Lind, N. C. (1974). “Exact and invariant second-moment code format.” J. Eng. Mech. Div., 100(1), 111–121.
Hong, H. P., and Roh, G. (2008). “Reliability evaluation of earth slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 134(12), 1700–1705.
Hsu, Y. C., Lin, J. S., and Kuo, J. T. (2007). “Projection method for validating reliability analysis of soil slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 133(6), 753–756.
Janbu, N., Bjerrum, L., and Kjaernsli, B. (1956). “Soil mechanics applied to some engineering problems.” Publication No. 16, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway.
Low, B. K., Gilbert, R. B., and Wright, S. G. (1998). “Slope reliability analysis using generalized method of slices.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 124(4), 350–362.
Low, B. K., and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Efficient spreadsheet algorithm for first-order reliability method.” J. Eng. Mech., 133(12), 1378–1387.
Luckman, P. G., Der Kiureghian, A., and Sitar, N. (1987). “Use of stochastic stability analysis for Bayesian back calculation of pore pressures acting in a cut at failure.” Proc., 5th Int. Conf. on Application of Statistics and Probability in Soil and Structural Engineering, Institute for Risk Research, Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 922–929.
Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S., and Lind, N. C. (1986). Methods of structural safety, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Melchers, R. E. (1999). Structural reliability analysis and prediction, Wiley, New York.
Morgenstern, N. R., and Price, V. E. (1965). “The analysis of the stability of general slip surfaces.” Geotechnique, 15(1), 79–93.
Pradel, D., and Raad, G. (1993). “Effect of permeability on surficial stability of homogeneous slopes.” J. Geotech. Eng., 119(2), 315–332.
Terada, S., and Takahashi, T. (1988). “Failure-conditioned reliability index.” J. Struct. Eng., 114(4), 942–952.
Wu, T. H., and Abdel-Latif, M. A. (2000). “Prediction and mapping of landslide hazard.” Can. Geotech. J., 37(4), 781–795.
Xu, B., and Low, B. K. (2006). “Probabilistic stability analysis of embankment based on finite-element analysis.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 132(11), 1444–1454.
Xue, J. F., and Gavin, K. (2007). “Simultaneous determination of critical slip surface and reliability index for slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 133(7), 878–886.
Zhang, J. (2009). “Characterizing geotechnical model uncertainty.” Ph.D. thesis, The Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology, Hong Kong.
Zhang, J., Tang, W. H., and Zhang, L. M. (2010). “Efficient probabilistic back analysis of slope stability model parameters.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 136(1), 99–109.
Zhang, L. L., Zhang, L. M., and Tang, W. H. (2005). “Rainfall-induced slope failure considering variability of soil properties.” Geotechnique, 55(2), 183–188.
Zhang, J., Zhang, L. M., and Tang, W. H. (2009). “Bayesian framework for characterizing geotechnical model uncertainty.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 135(7), 932–940.
Zhao, Y. G., Zhong, W. Q., and Ang, A. H.-S. (2007). “Estimating joint failure probability of series structural systems.” J. Eng. Mech., 133(5), 588–596.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 137 • Issue 3 • March 2011
Pages: 227 - 238
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 8, 2009
Accepted: Aug 1, 2010
Published online: Aug 3, 2010
Published in print: Mar 1, 2011
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.