Quantitative Risk Assessment of Cut-Slope Projects under Construction
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 12
Abstract
In some cut-slope projects landslide is a common problem during construction due to unfavorable geomorphological and geomechanical conditions. It is necessary to do a quantitative assessment of the risk posed by landslide before determining the budget or tender price. This paper outlines a general procedure for doing this, followed by an example to demonstrate the approach in comparison to a known failure. Finite-element analyses identify the most dangerous landslide scenario among all construction steps. The slope failure probability is then estimated using reliability theory based on the most dangerous construction step. After identifying the potential failure surface and estimating the volume of the sliding mass, the runnout behavior of sliding mass is simulated to delimit the extent of likely impacted area. Then, the exposed elements at risk and their vulnerabilities are identified and analyzed. The landslide risk is assessed quantitatively for three types of consequences: casualties, economic loss, and time overrun. Compared with actual consequences, the estimation results were in acceptable agreement with the case study. The paper demonstrates that it is feasible to analyze the risk associated with landslides during construction of cut-slopes.
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Acknowledgments
This research was sponsored by National Natural-Science Foundation of China (Grant No. NNSFC40772179) and Western Science and Technology Project of Ministry of Communications (Grant No. UNSPECIFIED2006318799107). Grateful appreciation is expressed for these supports. This paper was written while the first writer was a guest researcher at the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) in Oslo, Norway. The support provided by ICG during this period is gratefully acknowledged.
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© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 19, 2009
Accepted: Apr 26, 2010
Published online: May 6, 2010
Published in print: Dec 2010
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