Bayesian Framework for Characterizing Geotechnical Model Uncertainty
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 135, Issue 7
Abstract
As any model is only an abstraction of the real world, model uncertainty always exists. The magnitude of model uncertainty is important for geotechnical decision making. If model uncertainty is not considered, the geotechnical predictions and hence the decisions based on the geotechnical predictions might be biased. In this study, a framework for characterizing geotechnical model uncertainty using observation data is proposed. The framework is based on the concept of multivariable Bayesian updating, in which the statistics of model uncertainty are updated using observed performance data. Uncertainties in both input parameters and observed data can be considered in the proposed framework. To bypass complex computational works involved in the proposed framework, a practical approximate solution is presented. The proposed framework is illustrated by characterizing the model uncertainty of four limit equilibrium methods for slope stability analysis using quality centrifuge test data. Parametric study in the illustrative example shows that both quality and quantity of the performance data could affect the determination of the model uncertainty, and that such effects can be systematically quantified with the proposed method.
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Acknowledgments
This research was substantially supported by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the Hong Kong SAR (Project No. UNSPECIFIED620206), as well as the National Natural Science Foundation of China through a joint program with the RGC (Project No. NNSFCN-HKUST611/03).
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 135 • Issue 7 • July 2009
Pages: 932 - 940
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 31, 2007
Accepted: Oct 20, 2008
Published online: Jun 15, 2009
Published in print: Jul 2009
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