Two-Stage Approach for the Assessment of Photovoltaic and Cogeneration Systems: Integration of Regional Distributed Energy Systems and Power-Expansion Planning
Publication: Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 143, Issue 3
Abstract
Distributed energy systems such as solar power photovoltaics (PV) and cogeneration systems (CGS) are expected to play a main role in future energy systems. However, consumers employ these distributed energy systems based on individual decisions rather than top-down installation planning, so even if the expansion of PV and other renewable energy sources is a national energy policy, it remains uncertain how and when PV installation targets will be realized. Furthermore, when consumers extensively deploy distributed energy systems, the power-expansion planning of utilities will be affected by changes in daily load patterns. In this paper, the authors develop a two-stage model focusing on interactions between the energy system adoption behavior of customers and power-expansion planning of a utility. In the first stage, the authors disaggregate Japan’s Kanto region into 38 areas and then develop an optimum energy system model including PV and CGS for consumers. In the second stage, the demand for electric power from the utility is transferred to the power-expansion planning model of the Tokyo Electric Power Company. The authors observe how well the results for PV penetration agree with the cost and the market projection scenarios given by governmental plans. The effects of subsidy scenarios for PV are also evaluated. The authors find that PV penetration will not meet installation targets unless additional PV promotion policies are implemented. The power-expansion model in Stage 2 shows how consumer behavior affects long-term expansion. These findings suggest the need for an integrated energy policy promoting a low-carbon society.
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Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (Grant No. 15H02975) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The authors are very grateful for the helpful comments of the reviewers.
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Published In
Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 143 • Issue 3 • June 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 15, 2015
Accepted: Feb 22, 2016
Published online: Apr 26, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 26, 2016
Published in print: Jun 1, 2017
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