Public Safety Appraisal for Siting Marine Liquefied Natural Gas Terminals in California

Multifarious proposals for siting, design, construction, and operation of onshore and offshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals in California have recently undergone a rigorous federal and state regulatory appraisal. The regulations call for compliance with various environmental, public safety, and security mandates encoded in legal statutes. Public safety from the hazards of a large-scale LNG spill over water, during LNG tanker transit or marine terminal operation, emerged as the dominant concern for the affected local communities. To address their apprehension, extensive modeling of potentially perilous beyond design basis spill scenarios, ensuing from natural, accidental, and malevolent intentional events was conducted. It entailed finite element modeling for vessel collision with diverse LNG tanker types and applying computational fluid dynamics to predict the extent of LNG spread over water, atmospheric dispersion of vapor cloud, and the consequences of ignition. The objective was to appraise the adverse impacts of cryogenic fluid, fire propagation, and thermal radiation on humans and property not associated with these LNG terminals. Based on insights from risk analyses for three LNG projects in California, challenges in developing complex mathematical models, assessing public safety, and specification of safety criteria are delineated to benefit others planning similar ventures in California or elsewhere.