The GCO Method for Time-Dependent Structural Reliability Assessment
Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 149, Issue 1
Abstract
By taking the advantage of Poisson events, the outcrossing method has been widely applied for time-dependent reliability analysis considering continuous processes. Generally, the outcrossing method can only obtain an upper bound of failure probability, which will overestimate the risk and result in unnecessary maintenance costs. In this study, a general conditional outcrossing (GCO) method for time-dependent reliability analysis was proposed, which can obtain a more accurate probability of failure. The conditional outcrossing rate was defined as the outcrossing rate conditioned on fixing the values of time-invariant random variables, which was introduced to satisfy the assumption of independent outcrossing events. A numerical algorithm for the GCO method was developed with the aid of the Gauss-Legendre quadrature and point estimate method. The application of the GCO method is demonstrated by three examples, including an implicit limit state function with a finite-element model and non-Gaussian nonstationary random processes. The failure probability obtained by the GCO method was found to be in close agreement with that by Monte Carlo simulation, which demonstrates the accuracy of the GCO method.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code used during the study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The study is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52108104, 51820105014, 51738001, and U19342171) and the 111 Project (Grant No. D21001). The supports are gratefully acknowledged.
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Published In
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 149 • Issue 1 • January 2023
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 11, 2022
Accepted: Aug 27, 2022
Published online: Nov 2, 2022
Published in print: Jan 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Apr 2, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Design (by type)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Failure analysis
- Finite element method
- Gaussian process
- Mathematics
- Measurement (by type)
- Methodology (by type)
- Numerical methods
- Probability
- Stochastic processes
- Structural analysis
- Structural design
- Structural engineering
- Structural reliability
- Time dependence
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