Development of an Air–Water Temperature Relationship Model to Predict Climate-Induced Future Water Temperature in Estuaries
Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 138, Issue 5
Abstract
To predict climate-induced change in aquatic environments, it is necessary to understand the thermal constraints of various fish species and to understand the timing of current and projected coastal temperatures. This paper presents a newly developed model of the relationship between air and water temperature that was constructed on the basis of harmonic analysis. The model is novel because it requires only a single variable (air temperature) to predict water temperature and captures the hysteresis patterns of the rising and falling limbs and their historic memories. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected from monitoring buoys in Mikawa Bay, Japan between 2005 and 2009. The model validation showed a good performance with a root mean squared error (RMSE) in the range of 0.8–1.0°C. It is especially encouraging that the suggested model can predict water temperature with a reasonable level of accuracy once an acceptable relationship between air temperature and water temperature has been constructed from previously measured data.
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Acknowledgments
Hong-Yeon Cho was partly supported by KORDI PE985-01 and KORD PE9853D. We would like to thank all our colleagues at KORDI for their useful and cooperative comments. Also we would like to thank JMA and the Fishery Experiment Station at AICHI Prefecture in Japan for proving the supporting data.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 138 • Issue 5 • May 2012
Pages: 570 - 577
Copyright
© 2012. American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 15, 2011
Accepted: Sep 22, 2011
Published online: Sep 26, 2011
Published in print: May 1, 2012
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