Snow Load Calculations for Alaska Using GHCN Data (1950–2017)
Publication: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 34, Issue 3
Abstract
This paper presents the results of snow load calculations in Alaska based on measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent from 1950 to 2017 acquired from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). After cleaning and validation of data, snow depth and snow water equivalent values were analyzed to find the best statistical distribution using several numerical criteria and visual assessment of the best fit. The best-fit distributions were then compared with the lognormal distribution and used to calculate the 50-year mean recurrence intervals. The relationships between snow depth and snow water equivalent were analyzed. Regression models were built for both the best-fit and lognormal distributions. Finally, these regression equations were used to estimate snow water equivalent for stations where only snow depth was recorded.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The study was partially supported by the ConocoPhillips Arctic Science and Engineering Foundation, UAA, and the Structural Engineers Association of Alaska (SEAAK).
References
ASCE. 2017. Minimum design loads and associated criteria for buildings and other structures. ASCE/SEI-7-16. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Chantarangsi, W., W. Liu, F. Bretz, S. Kiatsupaibul, and A. J. Hayter. 2018. “Normal probability plots with confidence for the residuals in linear regression.” Commun. Stat. Simul. Comput. 47 (2): 367–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2016.1165840.
Erto, P., and A. Lepore. 2014. “Plotting positions close to the exact unbiased solution: application to the Pozzuoli’s bradyseism earthquake data.” Preprint, submitted December 17, 2014. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1412.5663.pdf.
Frith, R. 2015. Using satellite data to estimate snow loads in Alaska. Anchorage, AK: Univ. of Alaska Anchorage.
Gienko, G., R. Lang, S. Hamel, K. Meehleis, and T. Folan. 2018. Snow cover in Alaska: Comprehensive review. Anchorage, AK: Univ. of Alaska Anchorage.
Hazen, A. 1914. “Storage to be provided in the impounding reservoirs for municipal water supply.” Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 77: 1547–1550. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/326579.
Johnson, N. L., S. Kotz, and N. Balakrishnan. 1994. Vol. 1 of Continuous univariate distributions. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Johnson, N. L., S. Kotz, and N. Balakrishnan. 1995. Vol. 2 of Continuous univariate distributions. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Jones, K., and S. Daly. 2016. Effect of Arctic amplification on design snow loads in Alaska. ERDC/CRREL MP-16-1. SERDP RC-2435. Hanover, NH: Engineer Research and Development Center.
Leslie, L. 1986. “Predicted snow loads in Alaska.” North. Eng 18 (4): 4–9.
Leslie, L., J. Wise, and J. Fredston. 1987. Snow loads in Alaska. Anchorage, AK: Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks.
Makkonen, L. 2006. “Plotting positions in extreme value analysis.” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 45 (2): 334–340. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2349.1.
Makkonen, L., and M. Pajari. 2014. “Defining sample quantiles by the true rank probability.” J. Probab. Stat. 2014: 326579. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/326579.
Meehleis, K. 2018. Alaska snow depth and water equivalent snow depth: An analysis of relationships and the distributions of measured data. Anchorage, AL: Univ. of Anchorage Alaska.
Mehdi, F., and J. Mehdi. 2011. “Determination of plotting position formula for the normal, log-normal, Pearson(III), log-Pearson(III) and gumble distributional hypotheses using the probability plot correlation coefficient test.” World Appl. Sci. J. 15 (8): 1181–1185.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2012. “A nation at war.” Accessed July 16, 2018. http://www.history.noaa.gov/war.html.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2018. “Global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-daily). V3.” Accessed October 11, 2017. https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00861.
O’Rourke, M. 2017. Snow loads: Guide to the snow load provisions of ASCE 7-16. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Osetinsky-Tzidaki, I. 2020. “Cramer-von Mises goodness-of-fit test for simple null hypothesis.” Accessed March 26, 2020. https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/64124-cramer-von-mises-goodness-of-fit-test-for-simple-null-hypothesis.
Perez, A., and J. Lefante. 1997. “Sample size determination and the effect of censoring when estimating the arithmetic mean of a lognormal distribution.” Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 26 (11): 2779–2801. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610929708832077.
Sheppard, M. 2012. “Matlab script: allfitdist.” MATLAB Central File Exchange
Stember, J. 1994. A study of Alaskan snow loads. Anchorage, AL: Univ. of Alaska Anchorage.
Sturm, M., B. Taras, G. E. Liston, C. Derksen, T. Jonas, and J. Lea. 2010. “Estimating snow water equivalent using snow depth data and climate classes.” J. Hydrometeorol. 11 (6): 1380–1394. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1202.1.
Thom, H. C. 1966. Distribution of maximum annual water equivalent of snow on the ground. Washington, DC: Environmental Data Services Administration.
Tobiasson, W., and A. Greatorex. 1996. “Database and methodology for conducting site specific snow load case studies for the United States.” In Proc., 3rd Int. Conf. on Snow Engineering, 249–256. Sendai, Japan: CRC Press.
Tobiasson, W., and R. Redfield. 1973. Alaska snow loads. Hanover, NH: US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.
Weibull, W. 1939. A statistical theory of strength of materials. Issue 51 of Ingeniorsvetenskapakademiens Handlingar. Stockholm: Generalstabens litografiska anstalts förlag.
Yahaya, A. S., N. M. Nor, N. R. M. Jali, N. A. Ramli, F. Ahmad, and A. Z. Ul-Saufie. 2012. “Determination of the probability plotting position for type I extreme value distribution.” J. Appl. Sci. 12: 1501–1506. https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2012.1501.1506.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 19, 2018
Accepted: Jan 13, 2020
Published online: Apr 17, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Sep 17, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.