Predicting the Impact of Country-Related Risks on Cost Overrun for Overseas Infrastructure Projects
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 147, Issue 2
Abstract
Given the complexity of overseas infrastructure projects (OIPs), difficulty in managing country-related risks commonly causes cost overruns. Thus, there is a pressing need for proactively predicting the impact of country-related risks to enable reasonable decision making in the early proposal stage. Different from the previous studies that heavily relied on a large number of sample points, this research proposes a case-based reasoning (CBR) method capable of reliably predicting the impact of country-related risks on cost overruns for OIPs from a small size of sample points. Grey relational analysis (GRA) is applied twice to address the challenges associated with many variables. Finally, a case study is conducted to validate the reliability of the proposed method. Importantly, this research includes a structured process to develop CBR methods for prediction tailored to different construction companies, hence increasing the adaptability.
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Data Availability Statement
Data analyzed during the study were provided by a third party. Requests for data should be directed to the provider indicated in the Acknowledgments. Information about the Journal’s data-sharing policy can be found here: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001263.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere gratitude to China International Contractors Association for assistance in conducting group discussions and questionnaire surveys. They also appreciate the project managers from China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation for valuable and useful data and information.
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Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 2 • February 2021
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 29, 2020
Accepted: Jul 30, 2020
Published online: Nov 28, 2020
Published in print: Feb 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Apr 28, 2021
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