Forecasting Accuracy of In-Progress Activity Duration and Cost Estimates
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 146, Issue 9
Abstract
When a project activity has already started, tracking information such as percentage complete and current activity duration and cost can be easily retrieved. This information can be used to update the project schedule to anticipate the eventual project duration and cost more precisely. But hardly any studies analyzed how more accurate or reliable activity tracking information can be compared with the initial (planned) estimates, let alone which mathematical forecasting expressions are the most accurate. This paper quantified forecasting accuracy by extracting over 3,000 activities with partial tracking information (i.e., those which have already started but are not yet complete) from a real project data set. Two expressions for forecasting the activity duration and cost were tested by comparing their performance with initial (planned) and final (actual) values. The contributions to the body of knowledge are fourfold. First, it was shown that activity tracking information considerably outperforms planned estimates. Second, using two expressions can significantly minimize the deviations of time and cost estimates. Third, remaining activities’ duration and cost estimates can be closely modeled with log-normal distributions as a function of the activities’ percentage complete. Fourth, variability decreases linearly as activities approach their end. These findings allow project managers to better anticipate and model the duration and cost variability of ongoing activities and to improve the forecasting accuracy of the project duration and cost estimates.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data generated or analyzed during the study are included in the published paper. Information about the Journal’s data-sharing policy can be found here: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001263.
Acknowledgments
The first author acknowledges the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities for the Ramon y Cajal contract (RYC-2017-22222) co-funded by the European Social Fund. The first, third, fifth, and sixth authors acknowledge the help received by the research group TEP-955 from the PAIDI (Junta de Andalucía, Spain).
References
Abdel Azeem, S. A., H. E. Hosny, and A. H. Ibrahim. 2014. “Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models.” J. Hous. Build. National Res. Center 10 (1): 35–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hbrcj.2013.09.002.
Abdul-Rahman, H., M. A. Berawi, A. R. Berawi, O. Mohamed, M. Othman, and I. A. S. Yahya. 2006. “Delay mitigation in the Malaysian construction industry.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 132 (2): 125–133. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:2(125).
Acebes, F., M. Pereda, D. Poza, J. Pajares, and J. M. Galán. 2015. “Stochastic earned value analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning techniques.” Int. J. Project Manage. 33 (7): 1597–1609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.06.012.
Acker, D. D., S. Baumgartner, M. B. Patterson, W. W. Bahnmaier, and P. T. McMahon. 2001. Scheduling guide for program managers. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Systems Management College Press.
Alaghbari, W., M. R. A. Kadir, and A. Salim. 2007. “The significant factors causing delay of building construction projects in Malaysia.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 14 (2): 192–206. https://doi.org/10.1108/09699980710731308.
Alarcón, L. F., S. Diethelm, O. Rojo, and R. Calderon. 2005. “Assessing the impacts of implementing lean construction.” In Proc., Annual Conf. of the Int. Group for Lean Construction Sydney, Australia, 387–393. Cusco, Peru: International Group for Lean Construction.
AlSehaimi, A., and L. Koskela. 2008. “What can be learned from studies on delay in construction?” In Proc., 16th Annual Conf. of the Int. Group for Lean Construction, 95–106. Cusco, Peru: International Group for Lean Construction.
Ansar, A., B. Flyvbjerg, A. Budzier, and D. Lunn. 2016. “Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China.” Oxford Rev. Econ. Policy 32 (3): 360–390. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Arditi, D., G. T. Akan, and S. Gurdamar. 2006. “Reasons for delays in public projects in Turkey.” Constr. Manage. Econ. 3 (2): 171–181. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446198500000013.
Assaf, S. A., and S. Al-Hejji. 2006. “Causes of delay in large construction projects.” Int. J. Project Manage. 24 (4): 349–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2005.11.010.
Assaf, S. A., M. Al-Khalil, and M. Al-Hazmi. 1995. “Causes of delay in large building construction projects.” J. Manage. Eng. 11 (2): 45–50. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(1995)11:2(45).
Aziz, R. F. 2014. “RPERT: Repetitive-projects evaluation and review technique.” Alexandria Eng. J. 53 (1): 81–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2013.08.003.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P. 2017. “M-PERT: Manual project-duration estimation technique for teaching scheduling basics.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 143 (9): 04017063. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001358.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., M. L. Campo-Hitschfeld, M. A. González-Naranjo, and M. C. González-Cruz. 2015a. “Climate and construction delays: Case study in Chile.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 22 (6): 596–621. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-02-2015-0024.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., A. Cerezo-Narváez, M. Otero-Mateo, A. Pastor-Fernández, and M. Vanhoucke. 2019a. “Performance comparison of activity sensitivity metrics in schedule risk analysis.” Autom. Constr. 106 (Feb): 102906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102906.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., M. L. del Campo-Hitschfeld, D. Mora-Melia, and D. Domínguez. 2015b. “Modeling bidding competitiveness and position performance in multi-attribute construction auctions.” Oper. Res. Perspect. 2 (Dec): 24–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orp.2015.02.001.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., G. D. Larsen, and M. C. González-Cruz. 2018a. “Do projects really end late? On the shortcomings of the classical scheduling techniques.” J. Technol. Sci. Educ. 8 (1): 86–102. https://doi.org/10.3926/jotse.303.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., E. Sanz-Ablanedo, D. Mora-Melià, M. C. González-Cruz, J. L. Fuentes-Bargues, and E. Pellicer. 2019b. “Earned Schedule min-max: Two new EVM metrics for monitoring and controlling projects.” Autom. Constr. 103 (Apr): 279–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2019.03.016.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., E. Sanz-Ablanedo, R. Soetanto, M. C. González-Cruz, G. D. Larsen, and A. Cerezo-Narváez. 2020. “Duration and cost variability of construction activities: An empirical study.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 146 (1): 04019093. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001739.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., M. Skitmore, E. Pellicer, and J. H. Gutiérrez-Bahamondes. 2016. “Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions.” Int. J. Project Manage. 34 (2): 158–172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., S. T. Smith, J. G. Lloyd-Papworth, and P. Cooke. 2018b. “Incorporating the effect of weather in construction scheduling and management with sine wave curves : Application in the United Kingdom.” Constr. Manage. Econ. 36 (12): 666–682. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2018.1478109.
Batselier, J., and M. Vanhoucke. 2015a. “Construction and evaluation framework for a real-life project database.” Int. J. Project Manage. 33 (3): 697–710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.09.004.
Batselier, J., and M. Vanhoucke. 2015b. “Empirical evaluation of earned value management forecasting accuracy for time and cost.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 141 (11): 05015010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001008.
Batselier, J., and M. Vanhoucke. 2015c. “Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management.” Int. J. Project Manage. 33 (7): 1588–1596. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003.
Chen, S.-P. 2007. “Analysis of critical paths in a project network with fuzzy activity times.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 183 (1): 442–459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.06.053.
Chudley, R., and R. Greeno. 2016. Building construction handbook. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
Cox, M. 1995. “Simple normal approximation to the completion time distribution for a PERT network.” Int. J. Project Manage. 13 (4): 265–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00026-M.
Elmaghraby, S. E. 2000. “On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 127 (2): 220–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00483-X.
Elmaghraby, S. E., Y. Fathi, and M. R. Taner. 1999. “On the sensitivity of project variability to activity mean duration.” Int. J. Prod. Econ. 62 (3): 219–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-5273(98)00241-2.
Fimpong, Y., and J. Oluwoye. 2003. “Significant factors causing delay and cost overrun in construction of groundwater projects in Ghana.” Constr. Res. 1 (2): 175–187. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1609945103000418.
Flyvbjerg, B. 2011. Over budget, over time, over and over again. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press.
George, D., and P. Mallery. 2010. SPSS for windows step-by-step: A simple guide and reference, 17.0 update. Boston: Pearson.
Goldratt, E. M. 1997. Critical chain: A business novel. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
Gong, D., and R. Hugsted. 1993. “Time-uncertainty analysis in project networks with a new merge-event time-estimation technique.” Int. J. Project Manage. 11 (3): 165–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(93)90049-S.
Kelley, J., and M. Walker. 1959. “Critical-path planning and scheduling.” In Proc., Eastern Joint Computer Conf. Boston. New York: Association for Computing Machinery. https://doi.org/10.1145/1460299.1460318.
Khamooshi, H., and D. F. Cioffi. 2013. “Uncertainty in task duration and cost estimates: Fusion of probabilistic forecasts and deterministic scheduling.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 139 (5): 488–497. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000616.
Kim, B.-C., and K. F. Reinschmidt. 2010. “Probabilistic forecasting of project duration using Kalman filter and the earned value method.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 136 (8): 834–843. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000192.
Lo, T. Y., I. W. Fung, and K. C. Tung. 2006. “Construction delays in Hong Kong civil engineering projects.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 132 (6): 636–649. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:6(636).
Lu, M. 2002. “Enhancing project evaluation and review technique simulation through artificial neural network-based input modeling.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 128 (5): 438–445. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:5(438).
Malcolm, D. G., J. H. Roseboom, C. E. Clark, and W. Fazar. 1959. “Application of a technique for research and development program evaluation.” Oper. Res. 7 (5): 646–669. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.7.5.646.
Mansfield, N., O. Ugwu, and T. Doran. 1994. “Causes of delay and cost overruns in Nigerian construction projects.” Int. J. Project Manage. 12 (4): 254–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(94)90050-7.
Mehrotra, K., J. Chai, and S. Pillutla. 1996. “A study of approximating the moments of the job completion time in PERT networks.” J. Oper. Manage. 14 (3): 277–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-6963(96)00002-2.
Mezher, T. M., and W. Tawil. 1998. “Causes of delays in the construction industry in Lebanon.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 5 (3): 252–260. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb021079.
Naeni, L. M., S. Shadrokh, and A. Salehipour. 2011. “A fuzzy approach for the earned value management.” Int. J. Project Manage. 29 (6): 764–772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.07.012.
Odeh, A. M., and H. T. Battaineh. 2001. “Causes of construction delay: Traditional contracts.” Int. J. Project Manage. 20 (1): 67–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00037-5.
Ogunlana, S. O., K. Promkuntong, and V. Jearkjirm. 1996. “Construction delays in a fast-growing economy: Comparing Thailand with other economies.” Int. J. Project Manage. 14 (1): 37–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00052-6.
Operations Research and Scheduling Research Group. 2019. “Real project data.” Accessed March 20, 2020. http://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be/?q=research/data/realdata.
Pontrandolfo, P. 2000. “Project duration in stochastic networks by the PERT-path technique.” Int. J. Project Manage. 18 (3): 215–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00015-0.
Pritsker, A. A. B. 1966. GERT: Graphical evaluation and review technique. Washington, DC: NASA.
Sweis, G., R. Sweis, A. Abu Hammad, and A. Shboul. 2008. “Delays in construction projects: The case of Jordan.” Int. J. Project Manage. 26 (6): 665–674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.09.009.
Teicholz, P. 1994. “Forecasting final cost and budget of construction projects.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 7 (4): 511–529. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(1993)7:4(511).
Trietsch, D., L. Mazmanyan, L. Gevorgyan, and K. R. Baker. 2012. “Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 216 (2): 386–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.07.054.
Vanhoucke, M. 2010. Measuring time—Improving project performance using earned value management. Berlin: Springer.
Vanhoucke, M. 2013. Project management with dynamic scheduling. Berlin: Springer.
Vanhoucke, M., J. Coelho, and J. Batselier. 2016. “An overview of project data for integrated project management and control.” J. Mod. Project Manage. 3 (3): 6–21.
Wauters, M., and M. Vanhoucke. 2016. “A comparative study of Artificial Intelligence methods for project duration forecasting.” In Expert systems with applications, 249–261. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Wauters, M., and M. Vanhoucke. 2017. “A Nearest Neighbour extension to project duration forecasting with Artificial Intelligence.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 259 (3): 1097–1111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.11.018.
Whittle, P. 1983. Prediction and regulation by linear least-square methods. Minneapolis: Univ. of Minnesota Press.
Wiener, N. 1949. Extrapolation, interpolation, and smoothing of stationary time series with engineering applications. New York: Wiley.
Wilson, J. M. 2003. “Gantt charts: A centenary appreciation.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 149 (2): 430–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00769-5.
Yogeswaran, K., M. M. Kumaraswamy, and D. R. A. Miller. 1998. “Claims for extensions of time in civil engineering projects.” Constr. Manage. Econ. 16 (3): 283–293. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461998372312.
Zhang, S., C. Du, W. Sa, C. Wang, and G. Wang. 2014. “Bayesian-based hybrid simulation approach to project completion forecasting for underground construction.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 140 (1): 04013031. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000764.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 9 • September 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 4, 2019
Accepted: Apr 29, 2020
Published online: Jun 23, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 23, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.