Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology of Exterior Surfaces Defacement Caused by Algae Growth
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140, Issue 12
Abstract
This paper presents the development of a risk assessment methodology applicable to the analysis of exterior surfaces defacement from algae growth. The specific case of external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS) is frequently associated with a higher perceived risk if compared with other façade solutions. The design of the proposed methodology includes: the scope of the risk analysis definition, the determination of the parameters involved using a qualitative analysis of the problem, the collection of relevant data, and a quantitative probabilistic risk analysis based in Monte Carlo simulations. The detailed implementation of the methodology involved the preparation of a meta-model, response surface methodology, that was developed and compared with a hygrothermal simulation tool. The meta-model allowed a faster application of the Monte Carlo method, providing results of the methodology application to the use of ETICS in selected locations and a sensitivity analysis of the stochastic parameters.
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Acknowledgments
J. M. P. Q. Delgado would like to thank Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) for financial support through the grant SFRH/BPD/84377/2012.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 12 • December 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 20, 2013
Accepted: Jun 11, 2014
Published online: Jul 15, 2014
Published in print: Dec 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Dec 15, 2014
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