Sensitivity of Earned Value Schedule Forecasting to S-Curve Patterns
This article has been corrected.
VIEW CORRECTIONPublication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140, Issue 7
Abstract
This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.
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Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 7 • July 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 8, 2013
Accepted: Feb 18, 2014
Published online: Apr 2, 2014
Published in print: Jul 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Sep 2, 2014
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