Web-Based Risk Assessment Tool Using Integrated Duration–Cost Influence Network Model
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138, Issue 9
Abstract
The major challenges of project risk assessment may be attributed to the knowledge requirements for determining the level of uncertainty and the development of complex models to predict project outcomes. The duration–cost influence network is an adequate model that can be used for activity-based risk modeling. In this study, a scenario analysis feature is added to this model and a Web-based tool is developed that can be used to calculate risk-adjusted duration and cost, considering the risks affecting cost and duration of individual activities. Monte Carlo simulation is used to create scenarios, and the output of these scenarios is calculated by using the cost–duration influence system that simulates the vulnerability of the project to the identified risk factors. The Web-based tool can be used by decision makers during the preplanning stage of construction projects to estimate the cost and duration implications of various risk occurrence scenarios, determine contingencies, and prepare risk-management plans.
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Acknowledgments
This study is sponsored by the Turkish Academy of Sciences. The authors would like to express their gratitude to the anonymous reviewers for their excellent comments, which helped to improve the paper significantly.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 9 • September 2012
Pages: 1023 - 1034
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 26, 2011
Accepted: Feb 16, 2012
Published online: Feb 21, 2012
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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