Multiplier Model for Forecasting Manpower Demand
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138, Issue 10
Abstract
To better manage and forecast the demand for labor in the construction industry, a mathematical model is developed using a distributed lag model and labor multiplier approach. The model is tested using economic statistics and manpower data derived from Hong Kong construction projects. The model can be used by public and private sectors to forecast future labor demand so that an optimal workforce can be attained.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Akintoye, A., and Skitmore, M. (1994). “Models of UK private sector quarterly construction demand.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 12(1), 3–13.
Barnes, D. (1975). “Manpower planning.” Educ. Train., 17(8), 190–191.
Bon, R. (1992). “The future of international construction.” Habitat Int., 16(3), 119–128.
Briscoe, G., and Wilson, R. (1993). Employment forecasting in the construction industry, Aldershot, Avebury, England.
Campbell, C. P. (1997). “Workforce requirements: The basis for relevant occupational training.” J. Euro. Ind. Train., 21(8), 279–297.
Census and Statistics Dept. (C&SD). (1982–2008). Gross domestic product (GDP) and its man expenditure components in chained (2008), Census and Statistics Dept., Hong Kong.
Census and Statistics Dept. (C&SD). (1998–2008). Report on the quarterly survey of construction output, Census and Statistics Dept., Hong Kong.
Census and Statistics Dept. (C&SD). (2001–2008a). Index numbers of the costs of labour and material used in public sector construction projects, Census and Statistics Dept., Hong Kong.
Census and Statistics Dept. (C&SD). (2001–2008b). Underemployment rate by industry, Census and Statistics Dept., Hong Kong.
Census and Statistics Dept. (C&SD). (2001–2008c). Unemployment rate by previous industry, Census and Statistics Dept., Hong Kong.
Chan, A. P. C. (1999). “Modelling building durations in Hong Kong.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 17(2), 189–196.
Chan, S. L. (2001). “Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 19(4), 355–363.
Chan, W. S. (1993). “Disaggregation of annual time-series data to quarterly figures: A comparative study.” J. Forecasting, 12(8), 677–688.
Davis Langdon & Seah Hong Kong Limited. (2008). Construction cost handbook-China and Hong Kong, Davis Langdon & Seah Hong Kong Limited, Hong Kong.
Diebold, F. X. (2007). Elements of forecasting, Thomson Learning, London.
Ghost, B., and Cruz, G. (2005). “Nurse requirement planning: A computer-based model.” J. Nurs. Manage., 13(4), 363–371.
Heshmati, A., and Ncube, M. (1998). “An econometric model of employment in Zimbabwe’s manufacturing industries.” J. Dev. Econ., 17(3), 527–551, 〈http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/abs/hastef0277.htm〉.
Hillebrandt, P. M., and Meikle, J. L. (1985). “Resource planning for construction.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 3(3), 249–263.
Hong Kong Construction Workers Registration Authority (HKCWRA). (2010). “Designation trades for registration.” 〈http://www.cwra.org.hk/registration/DesignTrades.asp〉 (Aug. 14, 2010).
Hua, G. B. (1996). “Residential construction demand forecasting using economic indicators: A comparative study of artificial neural networks and multiple regression.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 14(1), 25–34.
Hua, G. B. (2000). “Evaluating the performance of combining neural networks and genetic algorithms to forecast construction demand: The case of the Singapore residential sector.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 18(2), 209–217.
Khoong, C. M. (1996). “An integrated system framework and analysis methodology for manpower planning.” Int. J. Manpower, 17(1), 26–46.
Killingsworth, R. A. (1990). “A preliminary investigation into formulating a demand forecasting model for industrial construction.” Cost Eng., 32(8), 11–15.
Lemessany, J., and Clapp, M. A. (1978). “Resource inputs to construction: The requirements of house building.” Building Research Establishment, Current paper 76/78, Watford, U.K.
Meehan, R. H., and Ahmed, S. B. (1990). “Forecasting human resources requirements: A demand model.” Human Resource Plann., 13(4), 297–307.
Ofori, G. (1988). “Construction industry and economic growth in Singapore.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 6(1), 57–70.
Park, S. H., Lee, S. M., Yoon, S. N., and Yeon, S. J. (2008). “A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry.” Ind. Manage. Data Syst., 108(3), 368–384.
Persad, K. R., O’Connor, J. T., and Varghese, K. (1995). “Forecasting engineering manpower requirements for highway preconstruction activities.” J. Manage. Eng., 11(3), 41–47.
Proverbs, D. G., Holt, G. D., and Olomolaiye, P. O. (1999). “A method for estimating labour requirements and costs for international construction projects at inception.” Build. Environ., 34(1), 43–48.
Rating and Valuation Dept. (1990–2008). Hong Kong property review, Rating and Valuation Dept., Hong Kong.
Rosenfeld, Y., and Warszawski, A. (1993). “Forecasting methodology of national demand for construction labour.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 11(1), 18–29.
Rumberger, R. W., and Levin, H. M. (1985). “Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market.” Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change, 27(4), 399–417.
Smith, A. R. (1977). “Developments in manpower planning.” Pers. Rev., 1(1), 44–54.
Tan, W. (1989). “Subsector fluctuations in construction.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 7(1), 41–51.
Tse, R. Y. C., and Ganesan, S. (1997). “Causal relationship between construction flows and GDP: Evidence from Hong Kong.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 15(4), 371–376.
Uwakweh, B. O., and Maloney, W. F. (1991). “Conceptual model for manpower planning for the construction industry in developing countries.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 9(5), 451–465.
Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2005). “The quality of projections: Manpower demand for the Hong Kong Construction Industry.” The Queensland Univ. of Technology Res. Week Int. Conf., Queensland Univ. of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2007). “Forecasting construction manpower demand: A vector error correction model.” Build. Environ., 42(8), 3030–3041.
Wong, J. M. W., Chan, A. P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2010). “Modeling construction occupational demand: Case of Hong Kong.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 136(9), 991–1002.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 10 • October 2012
Pages: 1161 - 1168
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 22, 2010
Accepted: Jan 12, 2012
Published online: Jan 14, 2012
Published in print: Oct 1, 2012
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.