Bootstrap Technique for Risk Analysis with Interval Numbers in Bridge Construction Projects
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137, Issue 8
Abstract
Bridges are principal and vital transportation structures. If risk management is not considered in bridge construction projects, objectives cannot be delivered on time, on budget, or with suitable quality results. Risk data set sizes and experts’ judgments are not usually sufficient for analyzing significant risks in bridge construction projects; moreover, the statistical distributions for risk parameter estimates are usually unknown. Standard parametric statistical techniques cannot provide appropriate solutions for cases with small data sets or unknown distributions. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach by using a nonparametric resampling technique and interval computations for risk analysis, in particular, for bridge construction projects. Bootstrap techniques produce more accurate inferences for comparing parametric techniques and are an alternative when the underlying parametric assumptions are not considered. Increasingly, because of the complexity and uncertainty in decision making at bridge projects, it is easier or more natural to provide interval values for parts or all of decision-making judgments. Furthermore, the goal of reducing standard deviations for both risk probability and risk impact compared with the conventional approach is another conclusion of this paper. The proposed approach is applied to a case in Iran to show the validity of the approach.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are very grateful to Editor-in-Chief Professor Charles T. Jahren and three anonymous referees for their insightful and constructive comments that have led to an improved version of this paper.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137 • Issue 8 • August 2011
Pages: 600 - 608
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 21, 2009
Accepted: Jan 4, 2011
Published online: Jan 6, 2011
Published in print: Aug 1, 2011
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