Stochastic Modeling for Pavement Warranty Cost Estimation
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 135, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper presents a cost estimation model for long-term pavement warranties with multiple distress indicators. One application area for such warranties involves performance-based specifications (PBSs). In contrast to traditional approaches, PBS gives contractors the flexibility to select construction methods, materials, and even design. However, the contractors then must warrant the performance of their work for a specified period of time. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the risks associated with the warranty is a significant cost issue for any contractor to cover potential risks while still being competitive in bidding. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of risk incurred by the warranty has several difficulties. The deterioration of a highway project is a complex process, which is affected by pavement structure, material, traffic load, and weather conditions. Based on a probabilistic risk analysis of failures of performance indicators, the resulting model can estimate the warranty cost at a detailed level. The application of the model has been demonstrated via a numerical case study using long-term pavement performance data.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank the University Transportation Center for Alabama and Alabama Contractors’ Fee Fund for providing financial support for this study. The opinions and findings expressed here, however, are those of the writers alone.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 135 • Issue 5 • May 2009
Pages: 352 - 359
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 22, 2008
Accepted: Aug 14, 2008
Published online: May 1, 2009
Published in print: May 2009
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